A fight it was. A big global warming fight put up by the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to get the world to accept the need to limit global temperatures to 1.5° C, not 2° C from the pre industrial era, because they believed a lower global warming limit of 1.5°C would be essential for their survival. What difference does 0.5° C make, one may ask. A world of a difference!
When the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) developed article 2, it was meant to 'achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere' at a level that would prevent dangerous repercussions with the climate system. It goes on to say that 'such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner'.
It is this 'natural adaptation to climate change' that take a massive hit, if the temperature goes beyond 1.5° C. After consistent demands by the group of SID's and LDC's, in 2010, in the Cancun Agreements, governments agreed to examine the 1.5°C limit in a review. This review began in 2013, with a scientific component called the Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) where scientists examined the effects of the 1.5oC demand. The main finding of the SED report is that the 2°C limit is indeed too warm for many vulnerable systems and regions, and a 1.5°C limit would be significantly safer.
So what does happen? Most terrestrial and marine animals will be able to adapt and follow the speed of climate change at 1.5°C. They will struggle to adapt at 2°C. Add to this, the acidification levels of oceans will be moderate at 1.5°C and more than half of the coral reefs may survive. Beyond this temperature, bleaching of the reefs will become very high, again affecting marine life. Economies of coastal countries in South Asia will be hit because of their dependence on the marine economy. Sea level increase may remain under 1 meter at 1.5°C. At 2°C, long term seal level rise will go beyond 1 meter.
Countries like Bangladesh and Myanmar, cities in India like Kolkotta and Mumbai do not have the adaptation capability to cope with this level of sea rise. Chances are that agricultural crops will adapt better at a 1.5°C rise. At 2°C rise, the potential to adapt will reduce, putting crops at risk. Limiting warming to 1.5°C will reduce risks for food production. Considering many countries in the South Asia are dependent on agriculture, the effects on their economies and on the lives of the population will be severe.
2015 was the hottest year on record, and 2016 is racing to beat this record. The average global temperature rise was 1.6°C above late 19th century levels in February 2016. If this keeps up throughout the year, we will cross the 1.5°C threshold. Experts warn that current levels of warming are already causing impacts beyond the current adaptive capacity of many people, mostly in the SID's and LDC's. When we talk of temperatures from a global perspective, we are talking about 'average temperatures'. But we need to remember that the warming is not uniform, meaning the hotter regions are experiencing hotter climatic conditions, sometimes making living difficult. It happened in Bandar Mahshahr, Iran on 31st July 2015, when temperatures climbed to 74°C. At these temperatures, the human being cannot function at all.
We need to keep our attention to the real problem of global warming. It is already affecting and it will continue to affect the lives of the most vulnerable nations of the world. We need to put collective pressure on our governments to develop comprehensive adaptation strategies, as it seems inevitable that we will reach and experience the 2°C torture. So we better prepare for it. We better find ways to adapt to this.
