The Left Democratic Front (LDF) surged to a comprehensive victory in the Kerala Assembly elections on Thursday, defeating the incumbent Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
The LDF took a substantial lead from early morning itself, and reached the halfway mark within an hour of counting, eventually leading in 91 of the 140 seats in the Assembly. The UDF, which had 72 seats in the outgoing Assembly, was reduced to 47.
The LDF’s victory continues a trend of no party winning reelection in Kerala for the last four decades.
The biggest gainer however, was the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which for the first time won an Assembly seat in the southern state. BJP candidate O Rajagopal, who had lost six previous elections, won the Nemom constituency defeating his nearest rival, the CPI(M)’s V Sivankutty. Interestingly, it was Sivankutty who had defeated Rajagopal in a tight contest in the 2011 polls.
The LDF maintained its vote share in Kerala, while the BJP gained significantly (Election Commission Website)
The BJP also increased its vote share considerably, garnering 10% of the votes. The LDF’s vote share remained constant at around 44% while the UDF’s declined by around five percent according to trends.
Read: LDF storms back to power in Kerala, BJP opens its account
The LDF’s resounding victory however, has thrown up a conundrum as to who will become the next chief minister of the state. There are two prominent faces in contention – Opposition leader and former CM VS Achuthanandan, and the popular Pinarayi Vijayan. While Achuthanandan, aged 92, has indicated his intention to be a possible candidate for chief ministership, Vijayan is a more popular choice within the party and looks more likely to don the mantle.
The decision will be taken by the party’s politburo when it meets on Friday. CPI(M) General Secy Sitaram Yechury is set to visit Kerala on Friday and will meet the state committee for the selection of the Chief Minister.
Tripunithura LDF candidate M Swaraj celebrating his victory against former excise minister K Babu, with supporters in Kochi on Thursday.
Congress shocked; Left, BJP jubiliant
Outgoing CM Oommen Chandy has termed the defeat as a shocker. His party, battling corruption charges, seems to have failed to convince the electorate to vote for its developmental work over the past five years. The Chandy government had faced the elections under a cloud of charges from bar bribery case to solar scam with even the 72-year-old chief minister facing severe personal allegations.
For his part, Chandy had claimed that his mass contact programme, which had received international focus with UNDP honouring him with an award in 2013, would see the party through to victory. The Kerala leader had also ignored advice from sections of the UDF to drop ‘tainted ministers’ from his cabinet. On both counts, Chandy has been proved wrong, it would seem.
However, while accepting that the UDF had been drubbed in the polls and taking personal responsibility for the same, Chandy denied that his decision to field ministers with corruption allegations had proved an important factor in the downfall.
Chandy will submit his resignation on Friday. The Chief Minister will be handing over his resignation to state Governor Justice (Retd) P Sathasivam on Friday at 10:30 am, Chandy's press secretary PT Chacko said.
Congress MP Shashi Tharoor was one of the first to speak following his party’s defeat in Kerala. He claimed that the opposition campaign to paint the UDF government as corrupt had been successful because the government failed to effectively counter the media speculation around it. Tharoor asserted that the Congress would play the role of a responsible opposition in Kerala, and hailed the election of many youngsters to the Assembly this time around.
CPI (M) leader Prakash Karat on the other hand trained his guns on the UDF, pointing out corruption as the single biggest factor that upset the UDF’s applecart in Kerala. "LDF has registered a big victory in Kerala because the people have endorsed a platform for a corruption-free government. The people have rejected the UDF government, its misrule and corruption," the former CPI(M) General Secretary said.
BJP’s sole winning candidate, O Rajagopal thanked the people of Kerala for reposing faith in him and said that his win was a ‘victory of the common man’.
Yechury however, attacked both the BJP and the UDF, claiming that the results showed there was ‘match-fixing’ between the two. He ridiculed the BJP, saying that despite the strident ‘communal’ campaign led by PM Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah, the party had managed to win just one seat. He assured the people of Kerala that LDF would work to honour the verdict by fulfilling the promises made.
Congress President Sonia Gandhi said that the party accepted the verdict of the people in Kerala, Assam, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu with humility and would introspect into the reasons for its defeat. Congress leader from Kerala PC Chacko said that ‘responsibility will be fixed’ for the defeat.
Fate of major candidates
CM hopefuls VS Achuthanandan and Pinarayi Vijayan established big leads in their constituencies from early in the morning itself. Among prominent losers is Speaker N Sakthan (Congress), Labour Minister Shibu Baby John (RSP), Agriculture Minister KP Mohanan (JDU), Backward Communities Welfare Minister PK Jayalakshmi and Reporter channel head MV Nikesh Kumar. Former Finance Minister KM Mani, who had to quit over bar-gate, won for the 13th time in a row after facing a tough challenge in Pala. Meanwhile, BJP candidate and tainted fast bowler S Sreesanth, who was standing from the Trivandrum constituency, lost handsomely by 11,747 votes to state health minister VS Sivakumar. Of the 1,26,412 votes cast in Thiruvananthapuram, Sreesanth got 34,764, which makes up 27.5% of the total.
The polling and counting of votes in Kerala had been mostly peaceful, but a CPI (M) worker died after a bomb was hurled during LDF's victory rally in Pinarayi, in Kannur district of Kerala.
Corruption and sex scandals affected the result
The UDF government was hit with a slew of corruption and sex scandals during the its rule in Kerala. From bar bribery, to the death of a Dalit woman, the scandals forced the Congress-led government on the backfoot.
Read: Corruption, need for change defeated Congress in Kerala
The bar bribery case cost finance minister KM Mani his job last year, and he barely won the election this year. The vigilance court said that prima facie there was enough evidence that Mani had accepted bribes from the Bar Hotel Owners Association for the approval of liquor licenses of substandard bars.
The solar panel scam rocked the establishment in 2013. Team Solar set up by Biju Radhakrishnan and Saritha Nair raised substantial money from investors and customers, and then failed to fulfil their promises. Nair claimed that she had paid a bribe to Chandy for setting up a solar panel business empire in Kerala. The scam eventually engulfed several staff working with Chandy, and even resulted in Saritha Nair accusing the CM himself of sexual harassment.
Read: Oommen Chandy goes down battling graft charges against his government
The rape and murder of a Dalit woman early this month was an unfortunate addition to the woes already faced by the incumbent government. A young Dalit woman was tortured and killed at Perumbavoor in Ernakulam district, and her intestines were pulled out during the horrific act and there were deep wounds on her body. The incident caused a hue and cry both among the public and opposition political parties in the state. The Left accused Chandy’s government of inaction in tracing the culprits, and the issue of women’s safety in Kerala suddenly gained major ground with less than two weeks left for the elections.
The developmental work done by the UDF during the last five years was offset by the corruption and sex scandals.
The Left’s win in the November 2015 municipal polls and the increase in BJP’s vote share could also have affected the final result of the 2016 election. The entry of the BJP as a new player of note in Kerala politics also dented the prospects of the ruling combination.
