Exit Polls: Close for Jaya; good news for Mamata, Assam BJP, Kerala Left
Exit polls results to elections in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry were announced Monday evening and there were few surprises. But not for the Congress -- its decline continues.
In West Bengal, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee is set to come back though analysts had given the new Left-Congress pact a shot. This combine was perhaps oversold as the disenchantment with Mamata is largely in the urban pockets. Rural Bengal has always been hers.
Read: TMC happy at exit poll result, alliance confident of success
For the first time, a BJP-led government is poised to snatch power in Assam. BJP seems to have cashed in on the anti-incumbency wave here.
Kerala is not bucking the trend. Numbers show that Kerala is throwing out the incumbent government, led by Congress’ Oommen Chandy, and bringing in the Left. But can it project a young face at the helm or will it be ruled by a 93-year-old? There is, of course, Pinarayi Vijayan, 72.
Can Amma hold on to Tamil Nadu? If she comes back as chief minister for a second consecutive term, she will be the first leader to manage that feat since 1989. Two exit polls, however, are keeping the DMK ahead -- but marginally.
Read: Many enemies have worked to see me defeated: Achuthanandan
The final fate of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry would be revealed on counting day, May 19 and it remains to be seen how close today’s exit polls come near the final tally.
Read: Exit polls: BJP unseats Cong in Assam; LDF in Kerala, Mamata retains Bengal
Let us take a look at the exit poll predictions:
Tamil Nadu:
C-Voter, Times Now: This poll predicts 139 seats for AIADMK, 78 for DMK+, 0 for BJP and 17 for others.
India Today-Axis: This poll predicts 89-101 for AIADMK, 124-140 for DMK+, 0-3 for BJP and 4-8 for others.
News Nation: This poll forecasts 95-99 for AIADMK, 114-118 for DMK+, 14 for DMDK+, 4 for BJP and 9 for others.
In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK alliance won an absolute majority in 2011, sweeping to power winning 203 seats out of 234, while the DMK alliance which included DMK, Congress and other regional parties could muster just 31. The BJP did not open its account.
Kerala:
India Today-Axis: This poll predicts 88-101 for LDF, 38-48 for UDF, 00-03 for the BJP and 0-4 for others.
News Nation: This poll forecasts 67-71 for LDF, 68-72 for UDF, 00-02 for the BJP and other parties failed to make a mark.
C-Voter, Times Now: This polls predicts 78 for LDF, 58 for UDF, 2 for BJP and 2 for others.
The UDF won the 140-seat Kerala Assembly in 2011, 73 to the LDF’s 67 in a very close contest. This time, all pre-poll surveys had predicted a Left victory. Most opinion polls have also predicted that the BJP might win a few, the first time in the history of Kerala.
West Bengal:
C-Voter, Times Now: This poll predicts 167 seats for Trinamool Congress, 75 for Left, 45 for Congress, 4 for BJP and 3 for others.
ABP- Ananda: This poll predicts 178 for TMC, 110 for Left-Congress and 1 for BJP. 'Others' have been given 5 seats.
India Today – Axis: This poll forecasts 233-253 for TMC, 38-51 for Left+, 1-5 for BJP and 2-5 for others.
Chanakya: This poll predicts 210 for TMC, 70 for Left+, 14 for BJP and 0 for others.
News Nation: They forecast 152 for TMC, 136 for Left+, 0 for BJP and 3 for others.
In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in an alliance with the Congress shot to power in 2011 after 34 years of Left rule. The AITMC-Congress alliance won 226 of the 294 seats, with Trinamool Congress capturing 184 and the Congress 42 out of 65 contested seats. This time around, the Congress has switched to the Left camp – the unlikeliest alliance ever given their history in the state – but they have one common enemy: Mamata Banerjee.
Assam:
Times Now C-voter exit polls result too favoured the BJP in lead with 57 seats, Congress 41, AIUDF 18 and others 10.
India Today poll predicts an even spectacular win for the BJP-AGP combine with 79-93 seats.
ABP News predicts that the BJP-led alliance is set to form the govt in Assam with 81 seats and Congress was pegged to win 33.
Chanakya forecasts 27 seats for Congress, 90 seats for BJP, 9 for AIUDF and 2 for others.
In Assam, the Congress won in a landslide in 2011, capturing 79 seats of 126. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) won 18 seats and the Bodoland People’s Front 12 seats. BJP finished with just 5 seats, down from 10 in 2006.
Puducherry:
C-Voter, Times Now: This poll predicts 14 seats for Congress+DMK, 9 for AINRC, 5 for AIADMK, 0 for BJP and 2 for others.
India Today-Axis: This poll predicts 15-21 for Congress+DMK, 8-12 for AINRC, 1-4 for AIADMK, 0 for BJP and 0-2 for others.
In Puducherry in 2011, the All India NR Congress (AINRC), which contested elections for the first time under this name, won 15 out of the 30 seats, having contested just 17. The Congress, which had backed the incumbent CM V Vaithilingam in an alliance, could only muster 7 seats. The AIADMK won 5 seats, the DMK 2 and Independents 1. This time, the incumbent CM is expected to battle strong anti-incumbency sentiment.
