Chennai: The third Judge of the Madras High Court, who reheard the fairly long-drawn 18 rebel AIADMK MLAs’ disqualification case after a split verdict earlier in June this year, upholding the Assembly Speaker, Mr. P. Dhanapal’s decision disqualifying them in September last year, has opened up more problems than prospects, to both the political camps than what seems to be on the surface.
Any kneejerk emotive response to the verdict by the 18 MLAs’, led by the Andipatti strongman Thanga Tamilselvan, who are fully supporting the dissident leader TTV Dhinakaran of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), may not help them entirely. On the other hand, it is not roses all the way for the ruling AIADMK in the state led by the Chief Minister, Edappadi K. Palaniswami.
Seasoned political observers who fleshed out the possibilities for both the camps see the feud far from ending soon despite the High court verdict having given a 2-1 clear edge in favour the ruling dispensation at Fort St. George. The Edappadi camp, including its seasoned minister D Jayakumar, and endorsed by the Deputy Chief Minister, Mr. O. Pannerselvam too, has been saying for long that once the judgment came in their favour, many in the TTV Dhinakaran camp would come back to the parent AIADMK. The EPS camp would pull all punches at their command to ensure this possibility opened up earlier rather than later. But it is not quite that simple given the crisis that engulfs the BJP at the Centre now.
Thus, observers say, the immediate challenge for TTV Dhinakaran would be to keep his flock together and the first sops he could offer to the disappointed 18 MLAs’, more so after their holy dip at the Thamirabarani Pushkaram festival, is that they would be automatically re-nominated to contest from the same constituencies they have been representing so far and from where by-elections would be held as and when the Election Commission decides to hold them.
Though some in the ruling party circles are floating the proposition that these 18 “disqualified MLAs’ cannot contest”, that argument would not hold water for they have not been unseated of the Assembly membership in any criminal case. However, it would still be a drain on the TTV Dhinakaran camp’s resources, if they choose to go on appeal against High court verdict in the Supreme court, instead of pragmatically reconciling to face the by-elections to 20 constituencies now (including Tiruparankundram and Tiruvarur where seats have fallen vacant upon the recent death of their incumbents). A tacit understanding with the main opposition DMK in that scenario could tilt the scales for the ruling AIADMK later.
In fact, observers point out, TTV group going on appeal would be giving everything away to EPS group, as any such move “will be the sweetest music for EPS in recent days.” It will help the Chief Minister to continue the status quo and will make things worse for Dhinakaran should the EC decide to hold the by-polls with the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The 18 constituencies in the state for all practical purposes have been without representation for more than a year and the TTV camp had even announced a fast against entitlements to these constituencies being ignored by the Chief Minister. The EC too, as of now, would have to call for the elections within six months from the date of the High court verdict.
Considering all these factors, observers say it would be prudent for Mr. Dhinakaran to make the same noises as the DMK President M K Stalin in wanting by-elections to 20 seats at the earliest, what with the anti-incumbency and corruption charges against the EPS government, beginning to cast a shadow on the ruling AIADMK. But should the Dhinakaran group oblige the EPS camp by going on appeal in the Apex court, it could, by sheer procedural drags, make the fate of these 20 constituencies hanging in the balance even right up till 2021!
