THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: A farmer has a bird’s instinct to sense drought from afar. There are unmistakable signs that demonstrate to the farmer that disaster will swoop down any moment. These signs are not dramatic as in the scriptures, but so subtle that they will be missed by those unfamiliar with the quirks of soil and plants.
The leaves at the base will wilt, but instead of the usual bleached grey they will acquire a greyish amber tone giving the leaf a translucent look. The soil around a plant will be spotted with black dots or moles, which will be proton-like that will not register on a non-farmer. The juice of banana flowers arranged around the inflorescence (‘vazhakkoomb’ in local parlance) will tickle the tongue like a mild carbonated drink.
There are theatrical signs too like the abnormal nut fall from coconut trees. All these signs, and many more, have been reported from various parts of the state, especially from Palakkad, Thrissur, Idukki and Kollam.
And then there are signs no one can fail to notice. Parched water bodies, temperatures soaring over 40 degrees celsius, cattle falling dead, leaf-less trees. Here is the latest official estimate of the principal agriculture officer of Palakkad, the worst-affected district: 377 hectares of paddy farms have been fully destroyed this summer, and 530 farmers have been affected.
“This is too conservative an estimate, though even this has never happened before. I am sure more than 3,000 hectares in Palakkad have been laid to waste till now,” said R. Haley, the state’s foremost agriculture expert.
Haley feels the situation is unprecedented. “I have never seen such a devastating scene in my long life,” he said. Haley, who was in Alappuzha last week, said the farmers in the state’s rice bowl are in dire straits. “They have not even received the money for their harvest last year, and now the intense heat,” he said. Plantation crops have been seriously affected. “Pepper, for instance, is so ruined that no one will buy it,” Haley said.
Agriculture officers across the state are inundated with the woes of farmers. “Even after taking only the barest minimum required for domestic uses, there is no water left for irrigation in wells and ponds,” said an agriculture officer in Kollam district. “This has virtually decimated short-term crops like vegetables and arecanut,” he added.
Perennial crops like coconut are also not spared. A coconut tree, for instance, needs a minimum of 45 litres of water every week. Banana requires irrigation thrice a week, and vegetables should be watered daily.
“It has been observed that the field capacity of a cultivated area (the water retention capacity of soil) has dropped considerably in many parts of the state. This will manifest in the wilting of leaves. With water for irrigation becoming increasingly scarce, these areas will be left unwatered. In no time the entire crop area would be throttled, and destroyed,” said Jaison Elamakkara, a retired agriculture scientist.
More than the rising mercury, it is the absence of summer showers that has hurt the state. “Last year too, the heat was as intense but we had good summer showers. Kerala agriculture depends more on rains than irrigation. This year we have neither,” Mr Elamakkara said. Intriguingly, in spite of the gathering evidence, the state government has not called a meeting to discuss the impending drought.
Scientist finds no sign of drought
Unlike a farmer who relies on native wisdom, a scientist has a hard-nosed way of assessing drought. “The state does not satisfy any of the four major conditions required to declare a drought,” said Dr Sekhar Kuriakose, head scientist of the State Emergency Operations Centre.
Here are the four major conditions: rainfall deficiency, area under sowing, vegetation index or departure from greenery standards, and moisture adequacy index. “In all these four indices, the state continues to look healthy,” Dr Kuriakose said. The rainfall departure from normal is only 10 percent, which is usual. The area under sowing is satisfactory. The latest Indian Meteorological Department report, which came out on March 15, states that agriculture vigour across the state is ‘good.’
“Since this is not the cropping season, moisture adequacy is irrelevant at this point,” Dr Kuriakose said. Further, he said the water level in the state's reservoirs was satisfactory.
The state needs to adapt to this new situation. “We have created micro-climatic conditions that promote the increase in atmospheric temperature,” Dr Kuriakose said. Our tarred roads, concrete buildings and paved driveways and porches have high thermal mass or heat retention capacity. They absorb heat and release them back into the atmosphere offering us no respite from heat. The state perhaps has the highest density of tarred roads in the country, he said.
