Mumbai: Retaining six Mumbai Lok Sabha seats is going to be an uphill task for the BJP in this year’s election. The party insiders said that the 2024 elections have become a direct fight with the Maha Vikas Aghadi as AIMIM and Prakash Ambedkar’s impact is not going to be the same as last time. The split in Shiv Sena and NCP has not yielded the desired impact. However, the BJP is hoping that Raj Thackeray's entry will help in winning sizable Marathi votes.
In 2019 as well as in 2014, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance had swept all six seats with margins of over one lakh votes. Both parties had won three seats each. However, the saffron party is facing a major issue challenge in Uddhav Thackeray this time around. Although 40 out of 55 Shiv Sena MLAs have joined the Eknath Shinde faction, which is part of the BJP-led alliance, the party’s eight out of 14 MLAs from Mumbai are still with Uddhav Thackeray. The Shiv Sena cadre has also largely remained loyal to the Thackerays.
“It is true that the Narendra Modi wave worked in 2014 and 2019. But the alliance with the Shiv Sena was also equally important to avoid a split in Hindutva votes. This time, it depends on how many core Hindutva votes go in Uddhav’s favour. If we manage to retain more than 70 per cent of Hindutva votes, our candidates will be in the Contest. If we get less than that, our candidates could be in trouble,” a leader from Mumbai BJP said.
The BJP is confident that it will retain its Gujarati and North Indian votes, but the party is not so confident about Marathi votes. One of the reasons is that two of its three candidates are non-Marathis.
“Union minister Piyush Goyal is contesting from the Mumbai North seat, which is the only seat we are 100 per cent sure about. Last time, Gopal Shetty won the seat by a record margin of 4.5 lakh votes. We are expecting Mr. Goyal to maintain the same victory margin,” the BJP leader said.
Its second non-Marathi candidate is Mihir Kotecha, who is contesting another ‘safe BJP seat’ — Mumbai North East. However, Shiv Sena UBT has fielded Sanjay Dina Patil against him. If it becomes a Marathi vs Gujarati election, Mr. Patil can spring a surprise here.
The Shiv Sena candidates — Rahul Shewale, Yamini Jadhav, and Ravindra Waikar — are also facing similar challenges in Mumbai South Central, Mumbai South and Mumbai North West seats.
Apart from Marathi manoos, the BJP is also facing the challenge of convincing Muslim voters. The party alleged that fatwas are being issued in mosques asking Muslims to vote for Congress and Shiv Sena UBT candidates.
A party functionary from Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena said, “If these fatwas work and the percentage of Muslim votes increase, Mahayuti’s candidates in Mumbai South, Mumbai South Central, Mumbai North Central, and Mumbai North West will enter the danger zone. This includes BJP candidate Ujjwal Nikam.”
Mr. Nikam, a famous lawyer is contesting against Congress’s Varsha Gaikwad in Mumbai North Central. The Lok Sabha seat has six assembly segments out of which three — Bandra East, Kurla, and Chandivali — have decisive Muslim votes.
A BJP leader from Mumbai North Central admitted the anxiety in the party. “We are confident of getting a big lead of 70-80,000 votes in the Vile Parle assembly segment. Mr. Nikam is also likely to get a lead of 10-15,000 votes in Bandra West. But Ms Gaikwad can easily wipe out that lead if Muslim voters back her in three assembly segments. We are approaching the Muslim community through local meetings and trying to convince them,” he said.
