When equally matched parties or alliances fight, smaller parties tend to get squeezed out. If the secular combination of JD(U)-RJD-Congress and the BJP-led NDA do in fact turn out to be evenly matched, as many observers believe, then it is feasible that the standard belief will hold out. If not, the minor players could wreak a degree of havoc and contribute to the scene getting murky, in the election process and possibly during government formation, such is the level of pre-election unease, especially in the NDA grouping on account of dissatisfactions and “disbelief” — if LJP chieftain Ram Vilas Paswan’s son Chiragh is to be believed — following post-seat distribution equations.
As for the minor parties, the NCP and the SP are clear outliers. The Left group of CPI, a CPI (M-L) faction, and the CPI (M), can drum up scattered support, but some of the rural poor segment they bank on could just veer to the BJP-led grouping. This will be a new element for Bihar. The most interesting to watch will be the fate of the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM), the Hyderabad Muslim party, chancing its arm in a part of north Bihar. MIM is fielding candidates in the 30 seats of Seemanchal, with zones of Muslim preponderance, where the BJP had a rough ride in the last Lok Sabha poll. This leads to the viable belief that it has struck a deal with the BJP. Much would depend finally on how well the two main fronts marshal their resources. At the moment major surprises look unlikely.
