The collapse of the proposed talks between the national security advisers of India and Pakistan was expected once India insisted that in this engagement the NSAs will focus on terrorism, as the PMs of the two nations agreed at their recent meeting at Ufa, Russia, and also that the senior Pakistani official wouldn’t be allowed to meet Kashmiri separatist leaders while in India for official talks.
The collapse has been widely spoken of as a last-minute eventuality, but this doesn’t appear so looking at the Pakistanis’ theatrics and posturing on the eve of the proposed talks. In light of the pretty nasty way things have gone — including a record number of ceasefire violations and sending in of fidayeen terrorists of the mould of the Mumbai attackers — since what seemed a cordial meeting between PMs Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif in the Russian city, an element of pre-meditation on Pakistan’s part to seek to internationalise its agenda on Kashmir was on its mind really, and not to make a genuine effort to bilaterally discuss the Kashmir issue without bringing terrorism into play.
This Pakistan had known from day one when the NSA-level talks were proposed — that its man would be going to India primarily to engage the Hurriyat leaders in the full glare of media publicity and to do some sloganeering on the Kashmir issue instead of diligently taking forward a process of peace.
Islamabad’s game has come a cropper, thanks to some show of resolve on the part of India, but it is evident that the Modi government was taken for a ride by Pakistan. India was acting in good faith, and intended to move into a composite or comprehensive dialogue process — that would necessarily mean talks on Kashmir — after the immediate menace of terrorism and cross-border firings and shelling had been disposed of by the two NSAs. It quite simply failed to gauge that Pakistan was playing to its own well-crafted script.
What next? There doesn’t seem to be much sense in re-establishing contact at the highest political level all over again. That has been tried and the process has failed. After Islamabad’s bluff was called on the issue of NSA-level talks, there is every likelihood of Pakistani militarism being stepped up along the LoC and border regions, and in the Kashmir Valley. How soon an authentic fresh opening can emerge will depend on how successfully we can beat back such a manoeuvre. There is not much point in breast-beating. But serious diplomatic efforts should be mounted to make everyone understand Pakistan is cavalier about moving towards peace.
