‘Jayalalithaa can’t be written off’ says Cho S. Ramaswamy

Well-known political analyst and journalist Cho S. Ramaswamy has been a friend of former chief minister J. Jayalalithaa as well as her fiercest critic.
Cho, now in his 80s, told J.V. Siva Prasanna that watching Ms Jayalalithaa go to jail on corruption charges made him sad, but he is sure she will come out of this mess ultimately.

How do you react to the September 27 judgement in Bengaluru special court convicting, J. Jayalalithaa in the Rs 66.65 crore disproportionate assets case?
I cannot go deep into the judgement because I have not read it carefully. Nevertheless, from what I have read and what I have heard and seen in the media, it seems very harsh. The special court has awarded Jayalalithaa four years jail term and fined her Rs 100 crore after hearing the case for 18 years and going through evidence. We cannot say this is the perfect verdict. Some experts say that there were enough evidence and witnesses for the court to have decided the other way also — that the charges have not been proved.

Did you expect that Ms Jayalalithaa would go scot-free?
I did not expect that she would get such a harsh verdict. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) hoped for this, dreamt of it. The DMK leadership kept on speaking about their big hopes about the impending verdict. We do not know on what basis they built their castles. We do not know if the special court took into account Ms Jayalalithaa’s submission that the income-tax department had accepted her (tax) returns. We can come to a definite conclusion only after carefully and completely studying the judgment. We cannot talk further on this as that might be construed as contempt of court.

Those who have read the judgement say it is well argued, well researched and a very clear order. Only the AIADMK loyalists have been damning the judge…
Not just the AIADMK members, others too have expressed reservations (about the judgment). There is a huge public sympathy building up for her. After the verdict, many have hailed John Michael D’Cunha as a brave, bold and honest judge. Such praise would not have decorated him had he pronounced her innocent. You may also notice the build-up created before the day of the judgment. There was propaganda outside that the court’s credibility could come under a shadow if Ms Jayalalithaa were not found guilty and a severe punishment were not handed out to her.

Is this the end of the road for Ms Jayalalithaa? The four-year jail term would mean that she’d be disqualified from contesting elections for 10 years and people could forget her if she is out of competitive politics for such a long time...
There’s every chance she would bounce back. I am sure of that.
The considered opinion of legal experts is that legal avenues are available to her and she may come out unscathed. This judgment may appear to be a big blow to her now, that’s for sure. But then, it would be a big mistake if anyone thinks Ms Jayalalithaa could be written off.

It is common knowledge that Ms Jayalalithaa has been in total command of the AIADMK. Many feel that the party could fall apart if she is no longer there. What is your view?
The judgement has unseated Ms J. Jayalalithaa only from the position of chief minister of the state. She holds no government authority, but she continues to be the leader of her party and there are no challengers to her supremacy there. In fact, her followers are making extra effort to demonstrate their absolute loyalty to her at this testing time. They are confident she would return to rule again.

Do you see any administrative vacuum or political instability due to Ms Jayalalithaa’s conviction and her removal from the CM’s post?
This development is not as much a big setback to her as it is to Tamil Nadu. You will understand this if you recall how the DMK ran the government the last time.
Since coming to power in May 2011, Ms Jayalalithaa implemented many schemes to benefit the public. People have been happy, until this judgement came. Even now, the court order has been creating big public sympathy. People’s support for her could even go up now.

Do you really think people will continue to support her despite this conviction in a corruption case?
People have been saying this verdict is harsh. This strong sympathy could translate into public support. It is possible that this judgement will further increase the huge public support that Ms Jayalalithaa has been enjoying in Tamil Nadu.

Does that mean that the DMK and others in the Opposition cannot gain from Ms Jayalalithaa’s conviction? Doesn’t the invincible lady now suddenly appear very vulnerable?
DMK leaders cannot interpret this court verdict as a new opportunity that will revive their political fortunes.
The truth is that this is not going to change the people’s mindset in rejecting the DMK for the 2G scam. The administrative misdeeds and corruption during the last DMK rule in Tamil Nadu, and their (the DMK’s) role in the UPA governments are still green in public memory. Also, the new (post-verdict) government should not conduct itself in such a manner that the public will feel unhappy and divert support to DMK. That will surely cause political confusion and chaos. This is why I have been saying that whether this verdict is a setback to Ms Jayalalithaa or not, it sure could lead to a political crisis in Tamil Nadu.

Some say that Ms Jayalalithaa would not have suffered this much if her case had been decided in time, instead of meandering through several adjournments over the last 18 years. Comment.
I will repeat what I had said in my magazine Thuglak 14 months ago, soon after the Supreme Court pronounced its order (in August 2013), striking down a provision in the Representation of the People Act that had given some protection to the MPs and MLAs by allowing them to continue if they appealed against their conviction by the trial court and secured a stay.
The RP Act had given three months’ time for them to appeal and get a stay of the lower court order, but the Supreme Court order struck down that relief. I had stated even then that the apex court’s order would lead to confusion and difficulties.