If there is one political trend to be flagged in the past three months, it is the consistent failure of the BJP to burnish its credentials as the party that was given the mandate to rule at the Centre only last May. Prime Minister Modi seemed a larger-than-life figure after the stunning victory of the saffron party. But this did not buoy the BJP in the states. First in Uttarakhand in July, then in Bihar, Karnataka and MP in August, and now in UP, Gujarat, and Rajasthan, the party has suffered reverses in Assembly byelections on an embarrassing scale.
Does this mean the people of India are indicating the desire to vote against the saffronites at the first opportunity? That’s too sweeping. Anyone can see that. But does that mean that the BJP’s fortunes are necessarily headed south in the upcoming Assembly elections in a clutch of states, first Maharashtra and Haryana, and then Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir?
Well, even that could be a risky surmise. Statewide polls, as distinct from byelections, reflect statewide political circumstances, as well as the organisational state of the parties in the fray. So, we must wait and watch.
What can be asserted, however, is that the prestige of the country’s ruling party has been dented all too soon, barely four months after the party’s spectacular showing in the national election, and at a time when the Modi government was seeking to showcase its first 100 days in office (after which criticisms become permissible, as per democratic tradition).
There is more that can be asserted with some confidence — that the BJP’s divisive agenda, the party’s historical fidelity to Hindutva, deriving from its RSS roots — and its propensity to seek to drive a wedge between religious communities, not to say its pointed anti-Muslim propaganda, has failed to impress voters. It is noteworthy that this was the outcome in byelections in state after state. Mr Modi had sought to stress the development agenda in the Parliament election. He raised hopes that under his leadership the country could advance at a faster pace. It can certainly be posited that the national poll results would have been different if he had emphasised his Hindu nationalism instead.
The Prime Minister did not campaign in the byelections. Neither did the Gandhis on the Congress side. National leaders skip rushing about in state byelections. That’s been the tradition. And no inferences can be drawn from this as far as the results in July, August and September go. The causes of the BJP’s relatively poor showing lie chiefly in the relentless Hindutva propaganda of the Sangh Parivar and the Modi government’s inability to hold prices down.
