Chanakya believed that the unfolding present will cast its shadow on the configuration of the future. That is why he believed that analysing the situation as it exists today, provides the material for devising the strategy that must be shaped for the morrow. There is a causal continuity between the past, present and the future. Those who derive the right lessons from the past understand the present and are well prepared for the future. Those who don’t, seek to thrive on short-term dividends without a thought for the long-term consequences of their wilful myopia.
This incisive intellectual heritage, which so many of us seem to have forgotten today, is exceptionally relevant for the India of today. For instance, there is a direct corelation between certain developments abroad, especially in our own neighbourhood, and consequences within our own country. To ignore this would be a monumental blunder for a country like India which is situated arguably in one of the most dangerous regions of the world: we have a vulnerable 7,516-kilometre coastline, and a total of 15,106 kilometres of international borders with seven countries, of which 4,057 kilometres is the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, and the 778- kilometre-long disputed Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan.
In addition, we have pivotally influential elements in the Pakistani establishment who are implacably hostile to us; we have the problem of externally sponsored terrorism, and now, increasingly, home-grown terrorism. Afghanistan is endemically unstable with the Taliban regrouping in anticipation of Ameri-can and Nato withdrawal. Nepal remains a vulnerable conduit for terrorism directed against India, as does Bangladesh; and large parts of Burma are under the sway of terrorism of various hues.
In all of this, China, while pursuing its policy of containment with engagement towards us, is always willing to fish in troubled waters whenever possible.
The purported video circulated by Al Qaeda recently, threatening to step up jihadi terrorism in India, acquires a dangerous salience in this context. There are some who argue that we should not take the video seriously, and view it only as an attempt by Al Qaeda to gain publicity to counter its own perceived decline in the face of the terrorist extremism of the rival nascent organisation, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. This could be true, but it could also be false, and, in any case, we have no reason to be complacent.
There are two important reasons for this. Firstly, our security establishment is still flabby, ill-equipped, directionless and uncoordinated, with a multiplicity of agencies often acting in individual silos without a nodal strategic focus. Secondly — and this is far more important — the current government seems to be bent on creating a situation of communal polarisation which will, if unchecked, provide the most fertile ground for the success of the Al Qaeda threat.
Over two millennia ago, Chanakya stated the eternal verity that, ultimately, the ability of a nation to defeat its external enemies depends on how stable and healthy it is internally. The incendiary statements being made by the members of the Sangh Parivar, which appear to be specifically designed to generate hatred and violence between religious communities, is a time bomb ticking away for the benefit of those who are waiting across our borders on all sides to exploit the consequential social instability.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s choice of Yogi Adityanath as its mascot for the byelections in Uttar Pradesh is an inflammatory case in point. In speech after speech he has spewed communal venom, disregarding a reprimand from the Election Commission, and defying its instructions to restrain him through a FIR. The fact is that a leader like Mr Adityanath, with little else to recommend him except an electoral fiefdom in Gorakhpur based on religious polarisation, is only following the far more substantive diktat of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat, who recently said that India is solely a “Hindu nation”.
It is true that a majority of Indians are Hindus. But it is also true that we have large numbers of people of other faiths living across the length and breadth of our country. As Jawaharlal Nehru said as far back as 1948, religious co-existence is not an option but a compulsion for us. For centuries we have succeeded in living together, largely in peace and harmony. If this strength of our social fabric tears, or is ripped apart, no Indian anywhere will be safe. Governance and progress will come to a standstill.
The USP of India has been, and must remain, its vibrant plurality, because that is the foundation of our nationhood and our civilisation. It is increasingly clear that the BJP-RSS combine does not understand this. They seem to have adopted a conscious policy to talk of vikas or development at the level of higher leadership, and to pursue vinash or destruction at the ground level by encouraging the rabid elements of the Sangh Parivar to incite religious hatred. Obviously, they are unaware of the long-term consequences of such a policy.
Two days ago, home minister Rajnath Singh said that “we have enough strength to face any challenge from organisations like the Al Qaeda”. The truth is that we are not particularly strong in the hardware of our defence preparedness and intelligence apparatus; but even more alarmingly, his government is consciously weakening the software of our unity and social harmony, a software for which we have the unquestioned patent, and which has succeeded in keeping at bay those who have always sought to divide and destabilise us. The strength of such dangerous forces cannot be underestimated today.
Chanakya’s wisdom must be heeded by the BJP-RSS combine. Otherwise, they may do well in the Uttar Pradesh byelections and elsewhere in the short term, but they will prove disastrous for India in the long run.
Author-diplomat Pavan K. Varma has been recently elected to the Rajya Sabha
