New Delhi: With five-state Assembly elections culminating with voting in Delhi on Wednesday, the country now waits with bated breath for the results on December 8, widely viewed as a referendum, ahead of the battle royale in 2014.
Overshadowing the party and its candidates including the chief ministers of Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, and Chhattisgarh, Raman Singh, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi has turned the assembly elections into a reaffirmation of himself.
The results would either establish him firmly on the national stage or severely dent the "brand Modi." For the first to happen, Modi needs a clear victory in four states or a 3-1 result (excluding Mizoram) to do that. A draw would only bolster the Congress.
While the cautious BJP chief, Rajnath Singh claimed that the results will not be a reflection on Parliamentary polls, Leader of the Opposition in Rajya Sabha, Arun Jaitley stuck his neck out by predicting a BJP win in four states and describing the assembly polls as a referendum on Congress misrule in the Centre.
After being declared the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi has led the campaign in all four states. Star campaigner and the vote catcher, particularly in Delhi and Chhattisgarh, the Bharatiya Janata Party claimed that Modi, who showcased Gujarat in his rallies, “had a major impact on the urban vote bank and the youth," in all four states.
That it was a Modi show all the way became evident when he addressed nearly 60 rallies in the last couple of months.
If Jaitley's prediction of BJP bagging Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi comes true, Modi would emerge as a serious threat to Congress and its high command. However, Chhattisgarh and Delhi could be problem areas for Modi led BJP. In a 3-1 score, BJP would not mind losing Chhattisgarh, if it gets Delhi. Anything less is bad news for Modi and BJP.
In Delhi all eyes are on the "Gandhi-topi" clad AAP, which, on its anti-corruption plank, not merely created tremors in both the Congress and the BJP camps but re-defined bipolar polity of Delhi. Starting as a rag-tag outfit, AAP stormed into the center-stage of Delhi politics to emerge as a third alternative that captured the imagination of voters cutting across the class barrier.
If AAP bags a considerable number of assembly berths, then it could prove politically ambitious, and give Kejriwal the platform to look beyond the national capital in the forthcoming general elections. Kejriwal has taken his brand of politics beyond the usual and cliched debate between secularism and communalism, his anti-corruption plank could possibly have an impact on the urban vote bank across the country.
Poll predictions favour BJP
Exit polls conducted by different organisations predicted a victory for the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and hung assemblies in both Delhi and Mizoram. In Delhi, two out of three surveys put the BJP well ahead of its two rivals, Congress and AAP, while one predicts a clear majority for the saffron party.
A clear saffron surge is predicted in Rajasthan, with the BJP led by CM candidate Vasundhara Raje wresting power from the Congress, while the Congress appears well ahead of its rivals in Mizoram, falling just short of the halfway mark, according to one exit poll for the northeastern state.
In New Delhi, the exit polls claim the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party, which is contesting the elections for the first time, will get an impressive 15-17 Assembly berths, which could make the outfit possibly emerge as a key player and a spoiler in the 70-member Delhi Assembly. One of the surveys, however, predicts a clear majority for the BJP, with 37 seats.
The polls claim that the Shivraj Singh Chouhanled BJP government will comfortably retain power in Madhya Pradesh, but in neighbouring Chhattisgarh the contest appears to be far more close. One of the surveys places the BJP marginally ahead of its main challenger, the Congress, with a gap of just three seats. If the Congress does even slightly better than this on counting day, it could spell trouble for the Raman Singh-led government.
Narendra Modi, after being declared BJP’s PM candidate, led the campaign in all four states, and was projected as the star campaigner and votecatcher, particularly in Delhi and Chhattisgarh.
The BJP claimed Modi, who showcased Gujarat at his rallies, “had a major impact on the urban votebank and the youth” in four states.
