Ongoing Rains May Soon Herald NE Monsoon in Rayalaseema
Cyclonic circulations and shifting wind patterns set the stage for northeast monsoon rains across South India, with scattered showers and isolated heavy spells expected through October 12.
Visakhapatnam :Skymet, a private weather website, has forecast on Thursday that the southwest (SW) monsoon will soon resume its withdrawal from the central and eastern parts of the country, while the northeast (NE) monsoon is waiting in the wings to usher in rains over the South Peninsula during this week.
Multiple factors are joining hands and activating a rainy spell over the sub-divisions below 15°N on either side of the coastline.
There is a cyclonic circulation over the southwest Bay of Bengal, off the Tamil Nadu coast. From this circulation, there is an east-west trough extending to coastal Karnataka, running across Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka.
Further, a fresh cyclonic circulation is likely to form during the next 36 hours over the north Bay of Bengal, with a trough along the east coast.
Scattered rains of moderate intensity are likely over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
These showers are expected predominantly between Thursday and October 12.
A brief pause in intensity and spread is expected before the rains pick up again in the third week of October.
As per the Skymet forecast, the wind pattern is already showing signs of changeover over the Bay of Bengal. Easterly winds are on the verge of replacing the monsoon westerlies, which is the first and foremost condition for the ingress of the northeast monsoon.
Rains are likely to catch up with many places across the interiors of the South Peninsula. Isolated heavy rains cannot be ruled out during this period. The preferred places will include Chennai, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Vellore, Trichy, Madurai, Tirupati, Anantapur, Kurnool, Ongole, Bengaluru, Mysuru, Mangalore, Kochi, Kollam, Kottayam and Thrissur.