Israel Votes in Crucial Election as Netanyahu Faces Tough Challenge

Today's vote, the first since the Hamas-led massacre of October 7, 2023, comes amid profound divisions over accountability for the failures that allowed the attack and the independence of Israel's democratic institutions and judiciary.

Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been at the centre of power for 19 years, has managed to keep his coalition in power for a full four-year term, a rarity in Israeli politics. Now, he faces a formidable challenge from former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party, which currently leads in various opinion polls.

Also challenging Netanyahu are three other Zionist opposition parties — Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu and Yair Golan's Democrats. According to opinion polls, these parties have collectively outpolled the Likud-led bloc. However, neither bloc is projected to secure the 61 seats required for a majority government on its own.

Senior journalist Yaron Decel said a possible national unity government or a minority government could emerge if the country is to avoid another election in four months.

Decel believes opposition parties could come together primarily to remove Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving Prime Minister.

"Mr. Netanyahu is a controversial Prime Minister for a very long time. So, people here and we see the opposition bloc, the glue between the four parties is to try to replace the government of Mr. Netanyahu with a new government. Mr. Netanyahu has served as Prime Minister the longest time ever, 19 years, not consecutive terms. And he is very controversial. And the bloc that is against Mr. Netanyahu would like him to be removed and replaced," he said.

Netanyahu is highlighting that political divide, portraying his rivals as a left-leaning bloc that could depend on Arab parties to form a government, an arrangement he claims voters do not want.

"Israel's enemies only want us to lose - because then a dangerous left-wing government of Eisenkot and Liberman, with Yair Golan and the Arab parties, will rise here. The way to stop them is to go out and vote only Likud," Netanyahu posted in a late-night message on Monday.

The opposition bloc led by Eisenkot is focusing on accountability for the October 7 attacks and demanding an independent commission of inquiry. Eisenkot, regarded as a security hawk, has centred his campaign on arguing that Netanyahu poses a threat to Israel's security.

"Benjamin Netanyahu will conclude his role immediately following the election results that will take place tomorrow and the establishment of the next government, which will be carried out expeditiously. We will ensure that this is how it will be. The people of Israel will elect a prime minister whose considerations will always be for the good of Israel, who will never act out of political interests at the expense of Israel's security and the fighters of the IDF," Eisenkot posted in his final message ahead of Tuesday's poll.

Avigdor Liberman's message echoed the same sentiment, arguing that a vote against Netanyahu would be a vote for a stronger Israel.

Posting a picture with his grandson on the eve of the election, Liberman called for universal military or civilian service, equality before the law, civil marriages and a common core curriculum in schools.

He urged voters to turn out in large numbers, saying he wanted future generations to grow up in a thriving, strong and democratic Israel.

Yair Golan is also calling for political change, criticising Netanyahu's government for resisting the formation of an independent commission to investigate the October 7 attacks.

"Only a true vote will ensure both Netanyahu's replacement and the replacement of his path. Only a big Democratic bloc will guarantee that we replace the prime minister and that there will truly be a government of change. Netanyahu's government has resisted establishing such a commission — saying a politically appointed commission should be formed instead — while the prime minister has declined to accept personal responsibility for the failures on his watch," Golan said on the eve of polling.

After the votes are counted on Tuesday, President Isaac Herzog will consult the leaders of the elected parties before asking the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government to take the lead.

That candidate will have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If the attempt fails, another party leader may be given 28 days, without an extension, to try to form a government.

If that attempt also falls short, a majority of 61 members of the Knesset can request that the President assign the task to a particular lawmaker within a further 21-day period.

A government must ultimately secure the support of a majority of the Knesset to take office. However, a minority government can take office with fewer than 61 supporters if abstentions leave it with more votes in favour than against.

If all attempts to form a government fail, Israel could face another election, with Netanyahu remaining caretaker Prime Minister until a new government is established.

"There are three scenarios according to the polls. When we see that each block doesn't get the majority of 61 out of 120 members of the Israeli parliament. One, that nobody will be able to form a government. We had it in the past, and it means another round of elections in around four months because the parliament cannot produce a stable government," senior journalist Yaron Decel told ANI in Jerusalem.

He said a second possibility was a minority government led by the opposition bloc under Eisenkot, which could govern with fewer than 61 seats if other parties abstained.

"The other scenario is a minority government, which seems to be right now likely by the opposition bloc under Mr. Eisenkot. They will not get 61. They will get less than 61, let's say, like 56. But against them, there will be 52 and two Arab parties will abstain, and it gives them a majority but not of 61. It's called a minority government," Decel explained.

The third possibility, he said, was a national unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Israel has had such governments in the past, some of which survived for extended periods.

"This is also an option right now to see at the end of the day, a national unity government considering the open fronts with Iran, with the Hezbollah, with Hamas and with the Houthis. It might be for the sake of the interests of Israel," Decel told ANI.

The battle lines are firmly drawn, setting up a contest between Netanyahu, a seasoned political survivor, and Eisenkot, a former military chief. The outcome could reshape not only Israeli politics but also the broader situation in West Asia.