Netanyahu Faces Tough Challenge in Bitterly Contested Israeli Election

For Netanyahu, the campaign narrative centres on his claim that he is best positioned to counter the Iranian threat, backed by his endorsement from US President Donald Trump.

Netanyahu's coalition comprises his Likud Party, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's pro-settler Religious Zionism party and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right Jewish Power party.

His closest rival is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who has projected himself as a security hawk with an image of a political outsider.

Other contenders include the alliance led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, former Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman, and a four-party coalition headed by Yair Golan with significant representation from Israel's Arab minority.

Israel follows a party-list proportional representation system, under which voters cast ballots for political lists and seats in the Knesset are allocated in proportion to each list's share of the vote.

Political parties must secure at least 3.25 per cent of valid votes to qualify for the allocation of Knesset seats. The Israeli parliament has 120 members.

Following the elections, President Isaac Herzog assigns the task of forming a government to a member of the Knesset. The nominee must then present the proposed government to parliament and secure a vote of confidence. All Israeli governments formed to date have been coalition governments.

According to The Jerusalem Post, the four latest election surveys, which closed on October 23, showed Eisenkot's Yashar party leading Netanyahu's Likud. However, neither of the two major political blocs had enough projected seats to secure a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

On Sunday, Netanyahu invoked Trump's endorsement to warn of the potential consequences of his coalition losing power. He shared an AI-generated image on social media depicting a nuclear explosion in Tel Aviv, warning that voting for anyone other than him could expose Israelis to the threat of a “second Holocaust”.

Quoting right-wing activist Yuval Blumberg, Netanyahu's post described Israel as facing an existential threat from Iran and warned that the potential acquisition of nuclear weapons by Tehran could fundamentally alter the country's future.

The post also highlighted the importance of maintaining close ties with Trump, arguing that the current US administration offered a crucial opportunity to address the Iranian threat.

Earlier, Trump endorsed Netanyahu for a second time, urging Israeli voters to support the incumbent prime minister in a post on Truth Social.

“When you go to the Polls, please remember that Bibi has been an outstanding Warrior Prime Minister!” Trump wrote, adding that Israel and the United States must work together to confront their adversaries.

“Vote for Bibi Netanyahu for Prime Minister, we have to finish the job that we started,” he added.

Eisenkot, meanwhile, has sought to portray Netanyahu as having failed to protect Israel's internal security, invoking the events of October 7, 2025, in his criticism of the incumbent.

“The man during whose watch the greatest disaster in the state's history occurred refuses to understand that Israel's security is not a political bargaining chip, the lives of Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers are not forfeit, and the State of Israel is not his personal property,” Eisenkot wrote on X.

He added that Israeli voters would have an opportunity to end what he described as a period of reckless governance and restore responsibility, statesmanship and national security.

The election has set the stage for a fierce contest between Netanyahu, a veteran political survivor, and Eisenkot, a former military chief seeking to establish himself as a credible alternative.

The outcome could reshape Israel's domestic political landscape and influence the broader security and geopolitical situation across West Asia.