LIVE: War Has Halted Gulf Oil Flow -- And Restarting It Won't Be Easy

Mojtaba's father, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in joint US-Israel strikes on February 28

Update: 2026-03-12 00:59 GMT
Smoke and flames rise from buildings following an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyej, Beirut's suburbs, Lebanon on Wednesday. — AP

PARIS, France, March 13, 2026 (AFP) - The war in the Middle East has largely paralysed the Gulf region's crucial oil industry, which has been hit by attacks and an export blockade.

The war has forced companies to dramatically slow or even halt production -- and restarting it will not be easy, even when the war is over.

- What has been targeted? -

Since the war started with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, at least 33 strikes or attempted strikes have targeted energy infrastructure in the Middle East, according to an AFP tally.

The United States and Israel carried out 13 of them against Iran.

The other 20, which struck seven Gulf countries, were attributed to Iran.

The strikes mostly hit oil and gas fields or complexes, such as the massive Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia, Ras Laffan gas processing base in Qatar and the complex housing the Ruwais refinery in the United Arab Emirates.

Iran has also effectively blocked the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the usual shipping lane for around 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas output.

- Why is production down? -

Some infrastructure has been damaged.

Other facilities have closed or reduced activity as a precaution, such as Ruwais.

The near-closure of the strait has also had a major impact.

Gulf countries' output of oil and oil products has plunged from 30 million barrels per day last year, excluding Oman, to 20 million currently, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

It said the amount passing through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen to less than 10 percent of pre-war levels.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that can send some oil beyond the region, but their capacity is limited.

The result is storage facilities that are full to the brim.

"That's the main issue at the moment," an industry insider told AFP.

"Since there aren't enough ships to empty the storage facilities and export the product, suppliers have to stop production."

There is no easy fix, warned Pankaj Srivastava, a commodities expert at Rystad Energy.

"With crude supply increasingly stranded in the Gulf, refiners may soon be forced to adjust operations, curtailing runs as product exports stall and directing output solely to domestic markets," he said.

- How long to restart? -

"Depending how they were shut down, (restarting refineries) can take a week or two to reach full output," said the industry insider.

For oil wells, it is simpler: "You just reopen the valve."

According to the IEA, "upstream production will take weeks and, in some cases, months, to return to pre-crisis levels", depending on the site.

And "in the absence of a full ceasefire, ship owners, charterers, insurers, and crew will need to see robust security measures" to return to the strait, such as armed escorts, it added.

It said a traffic management system may need to be created to handle the massive backlog when traffic resumes in the strait, estimating it would take "several days to weeks" to clear.



Hinting at voter anxieties in the U.S. as the conflict in the Middle East continues, the president said the economy and American life will soon return to what it was before he launched strikes on Iran.

“This will bounce right back when it’s over, and I don’t think it’s going to be long,” Trump said in his interview with Fox News personality Brian Kilmeade.

Asked when the war will be over, Trump responded: “When I feel it — when I feel it in my bones.”


WHAT TO KNOW:

-All 6 crew aboard US KC-135 refueling aircraft that crashed in Iraq are dead, US military says. The American KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq while a second plane involved in the incident landed safely, the US military said Thursday. "One of the aircraft went down in western Iraq, and the second landed safely. This was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire," US Central Command (CENTCOM), which is responsible for American forces in the Middle East, said in a statement.

Iran's military however said in a statement carried by state TV that an allied group in Iraq had downed the aircraft with a missile, killing all its crew.

- Asserting that the joint US-Israel campaign against Iran is "going better than expected" and Israel is "stronger than ever", Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said there was "no life insurance" for Iran's newly chosen Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
Responding to a question about whether Israel would target Khamenei and Hezbollah leader Naem Qassem, Netanyahu said, "I wouldn't take out a life insurance policy on any of the leaders of the terror organisations." Read more here.
- Amid rising oil prices, the Trump administration has announced a temporary authorisation to other countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea, as there were no immediate signs of an early end to the US war on Iran. Read more
here
.

- Israel's military said Thursday that it had struck a site in Iran it claimed was being used by the Islamic republic to develop nuclear weapons. Read more here.




Live Updates
2026-03-13 18:46 GMT

US eases some Russian oil sanctions but crude prices stay high

The U.S. is temporarily easing some sanctions on Russian oil shipments, reflecting global concerns over sharply higher crude prices due to supply shortages stemming from the Iran war.
The move, intended to soothe jittery markets over the disruption of Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies, underlines how the war has boosted Moscow's ability to profit from its energy exports, a pillar of the Kremlin’s budget as it presses its invasion of Ukraine.
U.S. sanctions will not apply for 30 days on deliveries of Russian oil that's been loaded on tankers as of Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on X. That would give reluctant purchasers a green light to take the oil without worrying that they will run afoul of U.S. sanctions rules.
The Trump administration earlier had granted a 30-day reprieve to refineries in India.
Bessent said the “narrowly tailored, short-term measure” was part of President Donald Trump's “decisive steps to promote stability in global energy markets” and to “keep prices low."
Allowing the sale of stranded Russian oil would provide no additional financial benefit for the Russian government because the Kremlin already taxed the oil when it was extracted from the ground, Bessent said. Washington has sanctioned Russia's two biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, as part of efforts to end the fighting in Ukraine. Except for the 30-day reprieve for floating oil, those sanctions remain in place.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday the move will help stabilize global energy markets, adding it was impossible to do so "without significant volumes of Russian oil.”
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the action “does not help peace.”
“This easing alone by the United States could provide Russia with about $10 billion for the war,” Zelenskyy said. “It spends the money from energy sales on weapons, and all of this is then used against us.”
Oil prices stayed high after the announcement The price of international benchmark Brent crude eased after the announcement but soon rose again, breaking through $100 to trade at $103.24 per barrel as of 1800 GMT (2 p.m. EDT) Friday. That is still well above $72.87, where Brent traded on Feb. 27, the eve of the war.
The fighting has choked off most tanker transport through the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which 20% of the world's oil supply typically passes. That has dealt a massive energy shock to the global economy and threatened increased inflation around the world.
“In the short term this slightly increases available supply on the global market, which helps contain the current spike in oil prices,” said Simone Tagliapietra, an energy expert at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. “The impact on prices should therefore be modestly downward, or at least stabilizing.”
Analysts estimate about 125 million barrels of Russian oil are currently being shipped. That equals five or six days' worth of normal shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, or a bit over one day's worth of global consumption of about 101 million barrels per day.
Sanctions have cut into Russia's oil revenues. After President Vladimir Putin ordered his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Union — once Moscow's biggest customer — stopped taking Russian oil, and many Western customers also shunned it.
Instead, the oil flowed to China and India, where it sold for a discount due to efforts by the U.S., the EU and Kyiv's other allies to impose a price cap on Russian oil that was enforced through shipping and insurance companies.
Over time, Russia was able to dodge the cap by lining up a fleet of used tankers with obscure ownership and insurance based in countries that weren't observing the cap.
Along with the sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, Ukraine's allies penalized more and more of the individual vessels in Russia's “shadow fleet.” Customers in China and India started demanding even bigger discounts to compensate for the risk of running afoul of sanctions, for the hassle of concealing the origin of the oil, or for finding workarounds that skirted banks reluctant to handle payments for sanctioned oil.
In December, Russia's Urals blend traded under $40 per barrel, some $25 below Brent. That slashed the Kremlin's oil revenues to their lowest levels since the invasion. Oil and gas exports typically supply 20% to 30% of the federal budget.
Rising oil prices boost Russia's market position Russian oil has risen along with oil prices generally and now trades at over $80 per barrel — a boost to its financial fortunes if disruptions continue in the Strait of Hormuz and keep prices high while refineries in Asia need to replace supplies no longer available from the Middle East.
Russia’s daily revenue from oil sales during the Iran war has been on average 14% higher than in February, according to the nonprofit Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Russia has been earning 510 million euros ($588 million) every day this month from oil and liquefied natural gas exports, according to Isaac Levi of the CREA.
But there's still a big discount to Brent due to sanctions. The latest U.S. move “likely narrows the Urals discount somewhat" by reducing sanctions risk, Tagliapietra said. But since it's limited, the U.S. move "does not fundamentally change the structure of longer-term Russian oil flows or sanctions pressure.”
Former Russian Central Bank official Sergei Aleksashenko said the move “will not be a very significant boost” to the Russian budget because the oil was going to find buyers anyway -- especially given the disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
The Trump administration may not have been ready for such a dramatic spike or for a prolonged war, said Aleksashenko, head of economics at the NEST Centre, founded by exiled Russian tycoon and opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
Now that gasoline prices in the U.S. have risen along with oil, “the president should say something, that 'I'm dealing with the problem,'" he said. That includes the break for India and the release along with other countries of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves..
“In my view it's more rhetoric and perception," he said.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said leaders of the Group of Seven democracies discussed Russian oil with Trump this week and that “six members expressed a very clear view that this is not the right signal to send.”
—- AP 
Kostya Manenko in Tallinn, Estonia, and Kwiyeon Ha in London contributed.



2026-03-13 18:25 GMT

US stocks lose ground as war with Iran keeps pressure on oil prices

Stock indexes on Wall Street are losing ground in afternoon trading Friday, as the fallout from the war with Iran keeps pressure on oil prices, destabilizing the global economy.
The S&P 500 was down 0.6% after having been up as much as 0.9% in the early going. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 79 points, or 0.2%, as of 1:54 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1% lower.
The latest choppy trading follows heavy turbulence in the market earlier in the week, which has the major indexes headed for their third straight losing week.
In the energy market, which has been roiled by the Iran war and its impact on supplies of crude oil and gas, the price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, climbed back above $100 per barrel after briefly dropping earlier in the day. It was up 1.5% to $101.95 and is up about 40% for the month.
U.S. crude oil rose 2.4% to $98.03 a day after settling at $95.73 per barrel. It’s risen around 46% this month.
Oil prices have been volatile since the Iran war began. Iran’s actions have effectively stopped cargo traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz , where a fifth of the world’s oil typically sails. That has oil producers cutting production because their crude has nowhere to go.
If the war continues to hamper the production and transportation of oil from the Persian Gulf, it could cause a surge in inflation that could hurt the global economy . Analysts have said that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could jump to $150 relatively quickly.
While the International Energy Agency said Wednesday its members would make a record 400 million barrels of oil available from their emergency reserves, some economists believe that would do little to reassure markets.
President Donald Trump signaled earlier this week that he would take more action to address the squeeze on oil flows. The move follows the administration’s decision to grant temporary permission for India to buy Russian oil.
A new snapshot of consumer spending Friday shows inflation crept higher in January, even before the Iran war caused oil and gas prices to spike.
The Commerce Department said prices rose 2.8% in January compared with a year earlier. But excluding the volatile food and energy categories — which the Federal Reserve pays closer attention to — core prices rose 3.1%, up from 3% in the prior month and the highest in nearly two years.
Even so, consumers still lifted their spending at a solid 0.4% pace in January, with their incomes rising at the same pace, according to the report.
Consumer spending powers about two-thirds of the economy, which is why economists keep a close watch on trends in incomes and spending.
The University of Michigan's latest gauge of consumer sentiment on Friday showed consumer sentiment declined slightly to its lowest reading of the year as gasoline price hikes since the start of the war in Iran.
Meanwhile, the Labor Department said Friday U.S. job openings jumped to nearly 7 million in January, topping economists’ forecasts.
Wall Street also got an update on how U.S. economic growth fared in the October-December quarter. The economy, hobbled by last fall’s 43-day government shutdown, grew at a sluggish 0.7% annual rate , a downgrade from its initial estimate last month.
“GDP and the job market have been expanding, but the rate of change has been slowing, which leads to concerns about the overall economy -- and that was even before we stared a war in the Middle East, which spiked the price of oil,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, said in an email.
About 61% of the stocks in the S&P 500 were rising Friday, with financial services, health care and consumer goods companies among the gainers. Charles Schwab rose 1.8%, Eli Lilly added 1.3% and Philip Morris International gained 1.8%.
Software maker Adobe fell 5.4% even after it beat Wall Street’s sales and profit forecasts. Investors were likely underwhelmed by the company’s forecast for its recurring subscription revenue.
Ulta Beauty slid 12.5% for the biggest decline among S&P 500 stocks after the beauty and makeup retailer's latest quarterly results fell short of analysts’ profit targets. Ulta’s profit was dinged by a 23% increase in selling, general and administrative expenses, which jumped to $1 billion in the period.
Bitcoin rose 1.3% to just around $71,140, boosting companies that trade or hoard the cryptocurrency. Coinbase Global rose 1.5% and Strategy gained 1.4%.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.28% from 4.26% late Thursday. It was just 3.97% before the war started.
Higher yields help make all kinds of borrowing more expensive, such as mortgages for potential U.S. homebuyers and bond offerings for companies looking to expand. They also push down on prices for all kinds of investments, from stocks to crypto.
In stock markets abroad, indexes in Europe were mostly lower after also falling in Asia.
- AP


2026-03-13 17:39 GMT

In less than two weeks of war, a Lebanese Red Cross paramedic helping wounded civilians was killed by an Israeli airstrike, and other medics have been wounded, the groups said.

Iranian Red Crescent staff and volunteers also suffered casualties aiding civilians, the groups said. Red Cross and Red Crescent personnel have been killed this year in Sudan and Gaza too.

The heads of the organizations said humanitarian workers are protected under international law and must be safeguarded in conflicts.

“When humanitarian workers are protected, so is our shared humanity,” they said in a joint statement Friday. “The lives of our teams, and those they serve, depend on it.”  — AP

2026-03-13 17:17 GMT

Shipping disruptions would also drive up costs for food, medicine and other lifesaving supplies, said Stephane Dujarric, the U.N. spokesperson.

Citing aid chief Tom Fletcher, the spokesperson said the world body is urging safe passage for humanitarian cargo. Fletcher told the Security Council the disruptions are already affecting Gaza, where flour prices have surged 270%, while global shipping costs are 16% higher than a year ago.  — AP

2026-03-13 17:15 GMT

The flights, arranged with the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, aim to help thousands of Americans in Israel whose return flights were canceled due to the war.

El Al, Israel’s flag carrier, says it will begin operating six special non-stop flights at “full capacity” from Tel Aviv to New York starting Monday.

Beginning Sunday morning, the carrier says it will contact U.S. citizens holding valid El Al tickets that were canceled and not yet reassigned. The airline says it understands “the current number of flights provides only a partial solution and does not meet the high demand,” and may add more flights pending government approvals.

The U.S State Department has helped Americans leave the region through charter flights and, from Israel, via overland routes to neighboring countries where commercial flights remain available. It said on Thursday that the vast majority of have made their way back to the U.S. on commercial flights but some were evacuated in roughly 50 charter flights.  — AP

2026-03-13 17:01 GMT

Embassy staff and passengers who were stuck in transit when the war broke out made it home Friday evening on a Qatar Airways flight, in coordination with the Bangladeshi government.

That’s according to Ragib Samad, executive director at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka.

The war has forced widespread airspace closures, cancelling 447 flights at Dhaka’s airport. — AP

2026-03-13 16:59 GMT

President Joseph Aoun said his proposal calls for Israel to halt its attacks on Hezbollah while international logistics support helps the Lebanese army take control of Hezbollah weapons and depots in the country’s south.

Speaking during a meeting with U.N. chief António Guterres, Aoun called for Israel and Lebanon to begin negotiations.

Israel has said Lebanon’s government isn’t serious about disarming Hezbollah, so the Israeli military must do it instead.  — AP

2026-03-13 16:45 GMT

During a surprise visit to Lebanon, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made the emergency appeal to fund food, water, health care and other aid over the next three months.

In addition to the hundreds of Lebanese civilians killed during the fighting, Guterres said about 850,000 people have been displaced.

“For years, Lebanon has opened its doors to those fleeing conflict,” he said. “Now, the world must show the people of Lebanon our strongest support in this hour of grave danger and profound need.”  — AP

2026-03-13 16:44 GMT

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam spoke after meeting U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to launch a humanitarian appeal of more than $300 million.

“Lebanon did not choose this war,” Salam said, criticizing Hezbollah’s rocket fire into Israel. “There is no justification in holding an entire nation hostage.”

He said more than 500 Hezbollah military positions and weapons depots in southern Lebanon have been dismantled, pushing back on Israeli claims that Beirut has failed to act against the group.

“These actions are not symbolic gestures,” Salam said.  — AP

2026-03-13 16:03 GMT

“Why are people being kept away from praying at Al-Aqsa Mosque?” asked Jerusalem resident Haitham Al-Zaghal. “That is freedom of worship; people should be allowed to pray.”

The Old City contains an area Jews call the Temple Mount — the holiest site in Judaism and home to the ancient biblical temples. Muslims call it the Noble Sanctuary and today it is home to the Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third-holiest site in Islam.

Holy sites have been closed to worshippers of all faiths throughout the war.

Israeli police have deployed extra forces and the country’s Home Front Command has cited wartime safety concerns as a reason for restrictions, though Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem has little shelter infrastructure.

Before the war, Israel tightened limits on Muslims seeking to pray at Al-Aqsa Mosque. Tens of thousands prayed there during the first Fridays of Ramadan this year, with Israel allowing less than 10,000 permits for Palestinians to enter from the occupied West Bank.

Jerusalem-based nonprofit Ir Amim questioned why the restrictions have remained in place as other synagogues and mosques have remained open, saying they “cannot be separated from the long-standing Israeli policy aimed at reducing Palestinian presence” at the holy site.  — AP

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