No Clouds With Silver Lining On The Horizon
Telangana faces a possible second summer, rising temperatures and worsening rainfall deficits, with limited prospects for significant rain in the coming months.
Rising temperatures and a possible ‘second summer’. Little, if any prospects for any significant rainfall. And drought is setting in in earnest with more and more districts joining the deficit rainfall category. This appears to be what is in store for Telangana in the coming months and well into the first half of the next year.
This year’s El Nino, which left the state with a minus-17 per cent deficit when the southwest monsoon season ended on September 30, continues its impact on Telangana with more districts now joining the list of those with deficit annual rainfall, with the rainfall season starting on June 1.
Meanwhile, the monsoon has started its withdrawal from over the state amidst predictions that Telangana will see maximum temperatures that are at least one-degree Celsius more than normal the coming months resulting in a warmer than normal winter. “We are already seeing 37-degrees plus temperatures in some places. With more dry days, more parts of the state can experience fairly hot weather,” a meteorologist said.
Against the 18 districts that were in the deficient category on September 30, as on October 9, the state, according to the Telangana Development Planning Society, has 21 in the deficient category. According to a senior climate scientist, with Telangana expected to face a less than average normal rains in the coming months, more districts are expected to join the deficient category. As per the TGDPS, at present, only two districts actually have net annual rainfall in the positive category – Medak with a +3 per cent, and Siddipet with a +5 per cent — deviation from the normal.
“It is not that all hope is lost. There might still be some rains in some parts of the state, particularly in the east and south, but this is a big if. While the northeast monsoon may bring some rain to these regions, everything else depends on what brews in the Bay of Bengal near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands,” according to a senior meteorologist.
That too comes with several big ifs. “The post southwest monsoon season normally sees some depressions forming over the Bay, but the direction they take can depend on where they form. If they form near the Andamans, and if they gain strength, and if they make landfall at a location from where their subsequent movement as depressions brings clouds over Telangana, then we could see some rains,” the meteorologist explained.