More Victories for Vijay as Charisma Remains Magnetic at Polling Booths
The message was not an overwhelming one as the ruling party may have expected to win by even bigger margins than by 20,000-plus votes in Maduarantakam and 9,000-plus votes in Dharapuram
Two more seats for Vijay’s TVK in the Tamil Nadu assembly should bring with them the reassurance that the charisma of the chief minister is intact, so too the magical effect it has at the EVM booths.
The message was not an overwhelming one as the ruling party may have expected to win by even bigger margins than by 20,000-plus votes in Maduarantakam and 9,000-plus votes in Dharapuram. But it is to be taken as an endorsement of a fledgling government that has performed with intent in six months in office, give or take a couple of U-turns on policy matters.
With a seat strength of 109 now in the assembly, the ruling party is still at least nine short of a majority on its own and must depend on a couple of allies whose unstinting support cannot be taken for granted. However, the backing of the Congress, with five seats, which was what propelled Vijay to power, can be expected to remain constant.
The undercurrents that featured the campaign because the TVK fielded two candidates who had won the seats on the Two Leaves symbol just months ago have subsided. They might return as five more bypolls are to be held once the legal hurdles are removed. The challenge will be all the more for Vijay who cannot afford to lose even one seat without inviting concerns on whether the dream run of the summer of 2026 is waning.
The DMK, with a cadre strength that enables it to stay in the state’s electoral race meaningfully, can take heart in its vote share barely sliding – from 32.2% to 31.8 % in Dharapuram and from 30.2% to 29.1% in Maduarantakam.
It is the AIADMK whose voters swung to the TVK while remaining with the same candidate they had elected previously that will be facing an existential crisis. TVK’s victories in the Madurantakam and Dharapuram bypolls come at the expense of the AIADMK as its vote share slid almost in direct proportion to the rise in TVK’s.
Sliding to the third spot while still having 47 MLAs in the assembly is not a political disaster. But what will happen if the numbers slide in the next assembly elections is what may cause worry to the party founded by MGR and nurtured by Jayalalithaa. Not having as charismatic a leader as the two legendary figures of cinema and politics is bound to hurt.
Edappadi Palaniswami may have missed the bus when he failed to attract Vijay into his alliance, which he could obviously not do as the tie-up with the BJP, always considered the outsider in the state, stretches back to 2019, three years after the death of Jaya who stuck to not aligning with the national ruling party after the BJP swept to power in 2014 at the Centre. The challenge for EPS now will be to find the sort of young star, from cinema or politics, who can take over as the CM face while he holds the party reins together.
TVK rule has been labelled a ‘minority government’ but that is an old phrase in TN politics. Jaya used to satirically slap the term for M. Karunanidhi’s rule. The numbers, however, are likely to get better for the TVK as well as the coalition if the ruling party is willing to accommodate Anbumani Ramadoss’ MLAs to bring stability in the numbers game. But their advent could lead to fissures in the existing coalition in which the PMK, IUML and the left parties are allies.
With elections due in five more constituencies, Vijay may get sucked into more poll duty as the party’s virtually sole campaigner but there are things to do in state administration and shaping policies and staying too long in election mode can be distracting. There are problems that need total attention like the power shortage and TNEB glitches in distribution. The administrative challenges are greater than winning elections, which given Vijay’s draw may be the easier task.