Much-Awaited Rain Likely To Hit AP Coast On Sept. 23
Low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea: The India Meteorological Department (IMD)
VISAKHAPATNAM: Much-awaited rain is likely to hit the Andhra Pradesh coast around September 23 as a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal is expected to intensify into a depression and then a deep depression, raising hopes of relief from the state’s prolonged rainfall deficit.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea, observed at 8.30 am on Sunday, was likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression on September 21 and a deep depression on September 22.
The system is expected to reach the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near the north Andhra Pradesh–south Odisha coasts around the morning of September 23.
Andhra Pradesh has been facing severe water scarcity, affecting households and irrigation and resulting in a shortfall of about two lakh hectares in kharif sowing compared to the previous year.
The rainfall deficit has also reduced water levels in major and medium reservoirs. The present storage in major reservoirs stands at 524 tmc ft against their full reservoir level of 1,014 tmc ft.
“If the forecast proves right, the system might bring down the rainfall deficit by at least 20 per cent. The current deficit as on date is 47 per cent,” said Visakhapatnam Cyclone Warning Centre director PLN Murthy.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the United States Global Forecasting System (GFS) have indicated the possible development of a system with a distorted eye-like circulation around September 23-24. However, these model projections do not establish whether the system will intensify into a named cyclone.
If it develops into a cyclone, it may be named Arnab, a name taken from Bangladesh. The actual intensity, rainfall distribution and landfall conditions will depend on the system’s subsequent movement and strengthening, with official IMD forecasts remaining the key reference for public safety and preparedness.