Andhra Pradesh: IMD Forecasts Heavy Rain In Ap From Sept. 19 to 24

The IMD, Amaravati, said on Friday that an upper-air cyclonic circulation over north Thailand persisted over the region and extended up to 9.4 km above mean sea level. It is likely to emerge over the north Andaman Sea around Saturday, with a low-pressure area likely to form there by Saturday evening.

The system is expected to intensify gradually and move west-north-westwards towards the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts over the following four days, the IMD said.

Meanwhile, global weather models have indicated the possibility of a cyclonic system developing over the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea around September 22-26. However, meteorologists have cautioned that the system is still in its early stages and its track and intensity remain uncertain.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), US Global Forecasting System and Skymet have projected varying scenarios for the system. Some model projections indicate westward movement towards the mainland, while the ECMWF model has indicated a possible movement towards Rajasthan in the final days of September.

Meteorologists said forecast confidence remained low at this stage. Heavy rainfall is considered more likely along parts of the Odisha and Andhra Pradesh coasts, while a severe cyclone landfall has not been confirmed by official agencies.

“Once cyclonic circulation forms, we can predict the intensity of the system,” IMD director-general Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.

Skymet said the possible cyclonic storm over the Bay of Bengal next week could also influence the further withdrawal of the monsoon from central and eastern parts of the country.