Sunil Gatade | Will the Dhankhar Effect Lead To a Major Shakeup In the BJP And Govt?

Believe it or not, the surprise, sudden resignation of vice-president Jagdeep Dhankhar might lead to a major shake-up in the BJP and the government, given Prime Minister Narendra Modi's policy of not giving a quarter to his detractors, within and without.

The only caveat is that there is still considerable uncertainty on how much and how well Mr Modi has patched up with the RSS, letting it say that bygones are bygones. The M’s Nagpur visit four months back was a signal that he wanted to make amends without showing that he has actually bent.

Strong leaders are always afraid of a rebellion and try to do everything in their power to weed out the suspect or possible trouble-mongers. While what Mr Dhankhar has actually done is not fully out in the public domain, the fact is that Mr Modi had not bargained for a vice-president who can do business with the Opposition. The craving for a larger profile is just taboo.

If you are not with me, goes the rationale, then you are against me. This is because self-made leaders always see the political chessboard as only black and white. There is no grey shade. Extreme loyalty means nothing but being “yes men”. Sycophancy prevails. Mediocrity rules.

Though not from RSS stock, Mr Dhankhar had got the reward as he projected himself to be an extreme loyalist of the PM but later started showing through his actions in the Rajya Sabha that he had a mind of his own. While the vice-president may rank higher in precedence, that has to be only for a decorative purpose in the Modi scheme of things.

The Opposition is not all that wrong when it insists the BJP is camouflaging a political exit as a constitutional lie and accuses it of playing “petty politics” over judicial accountability.

What Mr Dhankhar has done through his abrupt resignation, which was a forced one, is that it has made the PM see the dangers ahead. The inordinate delay in electing the next BJP president has not done the strong leader proud either. In such a scenario, episodes like the Dhankhar exit make the scenario more alarming. The leader tends to think that there are enemies everywhere. The grass looks full of serpents, real or imaginary, especially at a time when Mr Modi has, for the first time, failed to secure a majority for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections last year.

It is to the Prime Minister’s credit that he has handled Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar and Andhra Pradesh CM N. Chandrababu Naidu, the two main crutches of Modi 3.0, extremely well.

So, in the changed situation, the Prime Minister is bound to conduct an exercise of shuffling his pack to keep the men under constant pressure. Shocks make leaders more insecure.

Such a scenario would give a boost to men like J.P. Nadda and Rajnath Singh, who have been tried and tested “yes men”. New experiments are unlikely in the election for the successor of Mr Dhankhar, which is scheduled for September 9.

In short, Mr Modi’s endeavour to find a new Ramnath Kovind will gain momentum in the weeks ahead.

Whether one likes it or not, the beauty of Mr Modi is that he always goes the extra mile to avert any surprises. Accidents don’t happen to those who take accidents as insults.

The leader alone is important, and everyone else should get used to playing second fiddle.

This means that the politics over the selection of the new BJP president must be resolved quickly without giving much quarter to the detractors. Leaders like Nishikant Dubey will become more eloquent, demanding more powers for the leader who has for the first time brought the BJP to the centre-stage of Indian politics by securing an absolute majority for the party way back in May 2014.

Amid a siege-like situation, the crisis arising out of the Jagdeep Dhankhar episode will be sought to be turned into an opportunity for furthering the personality cult. For the RSS, it will also provide an opportunity to impress upon greater cooperation and coordination, an issue it has been pressing since the last Lok Sabha polls. This is expected to lead to greater say for the loyalists.

Those sidelined by the PM would utilise the opportunity to underline their usefulness in a variety of ways. A BJP leader, a known loyalist, put it bluntly: It is Modi who has brought the BJP to power, and therefore only he has the right to see whether it remains in power.

Long back, Mr Modi had sent a CBI director packing despite his being appointed for a fixed term. Now, he has done the same thing by sending home a vice-president who harboured his own ideas.

Mr Dhankhar has in effect helped Mr Modi become firmer. It depends on how the RSS is convinced of the gravity of the situation in the aftermath of Operation Dhankhar.

All said, the fact is that Mr Modi and his government are now at a low ebb since US President Donald Trump has become their tormentor. The total 50 per cent tariffs on India, including the 25 per cent penalty for buying Russian oil, is an unexpected and huge shock. What is worse is that Mr Trump joined forces with Pakistan, and the Modi government did not come out in flying colours during the marathon debate in Parliament last week.

The EC’s controversial Special Intensive Revision in poll-bound Bihar has brought the Opposition together like never before. Mr Modi’s plan is to win Bihar by hook or crook, says the Opposition chorus. The NDA in the state is not in a good condition. Prime Minister Modi is now facing multiple mutinies, and his silence is deafening.

The writer is a journalist based in New Delhi