Pollsters came close but fell short on UP
The saffron front left all projections by the pollsters behind and came in with its best performance.
New Delhi: Saturday’s Assembly poll results seem to have increased the credibility of exit polls as most of these had predicted a saffron surge in the high-stakes Uttar Pradesh elections.
While VMR, MRC, Axis and Today’s Chanakya predicted a victory for the BJP in UP, exit polls conducted by Lokniti and C-Voter had indicated a hung Assembly and a close fight between the BJP and the SP-Congress alliance.
All exit polls had unanimous in predicting complete rout of the BSP supremo, Ms Mayawati in UP and SAD-BJP in Punjab. However, the saffron front left all projections by the pollsters behind and came in with its best performance.
Of the 403 Assembly berths, India Today-Axis had projected 251 to 279 seats to the BJP, 88-112 to SP-Congress and 28-42 seats to BSP. Today’s Chanakya toed a similar line and predicted 285 seats to BJP, 88 to SP-Congress and 27 to BSP.
VMR had predicted 190-210 seats for the BJP, 156-169 for SP-Congress and 60-72 for BSP. NewsX-MRC indicated 185 seats for BJP, 120 for SP-Congress and 90 for BSP. The magic figure to form government is 203. As for India Today Axis BJP is forming government in UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur.
Predicting a hung Assembly in UP, ABP-Lokniti projected 164-176 for BJP, 156-169 for SP-Congress, 60-72 for BSP. India TV C-Voter gave 155-167 seats to BJP, 135 to 147 for SP-Congress and 81 to 93 for BSP.
However, in Punjab the predictions of a rout for SAD-BJP combine were proved wrong. With 117 Assembly berths India Today Axis predicted a Congress victory with 62-71 seats.
It projected 42-51 for AAP and 4-7 for SAD-BJP. Today’s Chanakya predicted a tie between Congress and AAP by projecting 54 seats for both the outfits. Similarly, NewsX-MRC predicted a tie between Congress and AAP by indicating 55 seats to both the parties.
India TV C-Voter put its money on AAP by giving the party 59-67 seats while projecting 41-49 seats for the Congress. ABP-Lokniti gave Congress 46-56 seats and 36-46 seats to AAP.
Majority of the exit polls were proved right in the case of Uttarakhand and predicted a BJP majority. Of the 71 Assembly berths in Uttarakhand, India Today-Axis predicted a BJP sweep with 46-53 seats and 12-21 seats for Congress.
Today’s Chanakya gave the BJP 53 seats and the Congress 15. ABP Lokniti projected 34-42 seats for the BJP and 23-29 seats for the Congress. India TV C-Voter projected a tie by predicitng 29-35 seats for both Congress and the BJP.
However, in Goa the pollsters were proven wrong and most had predicted BJP to remain on top. India Today-Axis giving the ruling party 18-22 seats and the Congress 9-13, the India Tv-C Voter survey gave the BJP 15-21 seats and the Congress 12-18 while the News X-MRC survey gave BJP 15, the Congress 10 and the AAP 8.
In Manipur, the predictions varied with one each poll survey predicting a Congress and BJP win. The India Today-Axis have BJP 16-22 seats and India TV-C Voter saying the party will win 25-31 seats. The Congress was given 30-16 seats by Axis and 17-23 by the C Voter poll.