Strategic Forecasting's fifth Decade Forecast focuses on major trends and tendencies in the world. It is published every 5 years, since 1996 (1996, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015).
1. EU will see changes
The European Union (EU) will never return to its previous unity. If it survives it will operate in a limited way. Free trade zone may not continue. Euroscepticism will hit Germany which will suffer economic reversals. Poland will rise as a regional power in Europe.
2. Russia could see USSR style disintegration
Russia’s overwhelming dependence on energy exports and the unreliability of expectations on pricing make it impossible for Moscow to sustain its institutional relations across the wide swathe of the Russian Federation. Moscow’s authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia.
3. US takeover of Russian nukes tough
The security of Russia’s nuclear arsenal will become a big concern. US is the only power that can address the issue, but it will not be able to seize control of the sites militarily and guarantee no missile is fired
4. China will slowdown
Beijing’s dictatorial tendencies and an anti-corruption campaign provide an outline of what it would like to see in the next decade. There will be slower growth and a powerful dictatorship to contain divergent forces created by slow growth. China will continue to be a major economic force, but will not be the dynamic engine of global growth it once was.
5. Post-China 16: 16 countries in Southeast Asia, East Africa and part of Latin America with a population of about 1.15 billion will get entry-level manufacturing jobs leaving China. Capitalism needs a low-wage, high-growth region for high rewards on risk capital.
6. National breakdowns
The Middle East, particularly the area between the Levant and Iran, along with North Africa will experience national breakdowns. Nation-states established by European powers in the 19th and 20th centuries will collapsing into factions defined by kinship, religion or economic interests.
7. Turkey will rise
Turkey will emerge as the major regional power, and Turkish-Iranian competition will increase as a result.Turkey will continue to need US involvement for political and military reasons.
8. US will disengage
The US will continue to be a economic and military power, but less engaged. It will face threats, but will not serve the role of first responder as it did earlier has in recent years.
9. Japan’s navy will become strong: Japan is dependent on imports of raw materials from Southeast Asia and the Persian Gulf. Given a more cautious US involvement in foreign ventures, the Japanese will increase their naval power in the coming years
10. Arab instability
The Stratfor report expects the instability in the Arab world to continue through the decade. It also expect Turkey to be drawn in to the south, in as much as its fears of fighting so close to its border and the political outcomes of that fighting - will compel it to get involved. It will intervene as little as possible and as slowly as possible, but it will intervene, and its intervention will eventually increase in size and breadth.
