Asteroid Likely to Hit Moon in 2032, Sending Debris Toward Earth: Study
Satellites may be at risk; impact could trigger dazzling meteor shower
A giant asteroid could crash into the moon in 2032, potentially sending debris hurtling toward Earth, scientists have warned. While the impact would pose no direct threat to life, it could endanger satellites and produce an extraordinary meteor shower.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring between 53 and 67 metres wide, was initially feared to have a 3% chance of striking Earth, prompting a planetary defence alert earlier this year. However, revised data now places that risk at just 0.0017%.
The moon, however, remains at risk. According to James Webb Space Telescope observations, the probability of YR4 striking the lunar surface has risen to 4.3%. A Canadian research team has simulated the potential consequences of such an impact, estimating it would create a 1-km wide crater and eject millions of kilograms of debris into space.
Some of that debris could reach Earth days later, lighting up the skies in a rare and vivid meteor display. The findings, which are yet to be peer-reviewed, suggest the event could pose a hazard to orbital satellites while offering a unique celestial spectacle.
