Next Leap in India’s Growth Journey Will Be Written Online

At the centre of this change lies e-commerce. More than just a channel for buying and selling, e-commerce has become a platform for empowerment that bridges aspirations with opportunities. It has emerged as a vital engine for job creation and a powerful enabler of the Prime Minister’s vision of Atmanirbhar Bharat. As per recent industry reports, online retail in India is set to grow to US$260 billion by 2030, doubling its share from 7% to 14% of total retail.

Unfortunately, public discourse often reduces the sector to controversies or allegations against large market players. This narrow view risks missing the bigger picture. The real story of e-commerce is about millions of small businesses, artisans, women entrepreneurs, and consumers who are experiencing new opportunities every day. Today, Tier II and III cities account for over 60% of all e-commerce transactions in India – a testament to how digital commerce is democratizing economic participation beyond metropolitan areas. India is creating its own model of digital growth - one that is both locally responsive and globally competitive.

Contrary to common perception, e-commerce growth does not threaten traditional retail; the ‘retail apocalypse’ narrative is contradicted by offline vendors themselves. Data shows less than 20% of the offline vendors reported a physical store closure in their neighbourhood since 2020 – the year of the e-commerce boom – and cited multiple factors beyond online competition for the same. What we are seeing is not displacement, but co-existence and complementarity.

E-commerce has brought millions of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) into the digital economy - a critical component of achieving true economic self-reliance. For decades, small businesses struggled with visibility, limited customer bases, and lack of access to markets. With e-commerce, these barriers have been broken down. A seller in a Tier 3 town can now reach buyers across the country with the same ease as a seller in a metro.

This access has proven crucial not just for growth but for business resilience. Sellers who had embraced e-commerce were able to withstand the disruptions caused during the pandemic and even grow their businesses when traditional supply chains faltered. The growth of e-commerce and accompanying digitalisation catalysed workforce transformation and job creation, generating approximately 16 million of jobs across logistics, delivery, warehousing, customer service, and marketing. Every product sold online involves various touchpoints generating jobs – many of them in small towns and rural areas that traditionally lack economic opportunities.

In addition, e-commerce has created a new wave of entrepreneurship. For women in particular, e-commerce has opened doors that were often closed by traditional workplace structures. From running small home-based ventures to scaling them into full-fledged businesses, women entrepreneurs are finding new ways to participate in the economy.

E-commerce is not only transforming domestic trade; it is also expanding India’s global footprint. Traditionally, only large exporters with scale and resources could access international markets. Now, digital platforms are democratising exports, allowing millions of small businesses to showcase Indian products to the world. By reducing geographic, infrastructural, and logistical barriers, e-commerce has made it possible for even the smallest sellers to reach international markets.

This is a significant shift in how India participates in global trade and builds a strong business case for offline vendors to adopt e-commerce platforms or pursue an omni-channel strategy. This momentum will also be vital in realising the government’s ambitious goal of reaching $2 trillion in exports by 2030. For small and medium exporters, e-commerce is the fastest path to global visibility and competitiveness.

While the economic impact of e-commerce on sellers, exports, and job creation is undeniable, we must not lose sight of the most important stakeholder in this story: the consumer. The reason e-commerce has scaled so rapidly in India is not just because it digitised MSMEs or created new export channels—it is because it has won the trust of millions of households.

Beyond convenience, consumers value the transparency and reliability built into digital commerce—easy returns and refunds, secure payment systems, and dependable delivery networks. These features have made online shopping a preferred choice for everyday needs as well as high-value festive purchases.

The recent LocalCircles report on festive sales confirms this trend, showing a 115% year-on-year increase in households choosing e-commerce for festive shopping. Importantly, the report highlights that Indian consumers place the greatest trust in platforms with transparent and effective return and refund policies—with Amazon emerging as the most preferred. This proves a simple but powerful truth: robust consumer safeguards are central to the long-term growth of e-commerce. Trust is not an add-on—it is the very foundation on which the sector’s future will be built.

Despite its promise, the sector continues to grapple with regulatory uncertainties—from tariff wars to frequent GST revisions. These create friction for sellers, investors, and consumers alike.

If India truly seeks to become Atmanirbhar, policies must be outward-looking and supportive of innovation, not protectionist or restrictive. Policy frameworks must balance regulatory oversight with innovation. The goal should not be to clip the wings of e-commerce but to let it soar—because every digital transaction strengthens India’s domestic economy, creates livelihoods, and enhances global competitiveness.

Policymakers should consider creating stable, predictable regulatory environments that encourage long-term investment, adopting policies that recognize the complementary nature of online and offline retail, and developing simplified compliance frameworks for small sellers entering digital marketplaces.

It is important to remember that the story of e-commerce is not about a handful of large corporations. It is about millions of small businesses that have found a level playing field, millions of jobs that have been created, and millions of consumers whose lives have been made easier.

Yes, conversations about compliance and accountability must continue. But they should not overshadow the transformative impact of e-commerce on India’s economy and society. Focusing only on criticism risks discouraging innovation and slowing down a growth engine that is delivering clear benefits to the country.

As India looks ahead, we must realise that e-commerce is one of the strongest drivers of inclusive, sustainable, and resilient growth. The question is not what e-commerce threatens, but what it enables: a stronger, more confident, and more self-reliant India.