Top

RCB vs PBKS, IPL 2025 Final Winning Probability: Check Which Team Holds Edge!

RCB have played a total of three finals in 2009, 2011 and 2016 and have ended up on the losing side in each of the summit clashes with Kohli's individual brilliance not being enough for them to end their title drought.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) will try its luck for the fourth time in the Indian Premier League final to clinch the title and end its 18-year old dream at Ahmedabad on Tuesday.

In all, RCB have played a total of three finals in 2009, 2011 and 2016 and have ended up on the losing side in each of the summit clashes with Kohli's individual brilliance not being enough for them to end their title drought.
Standing in RCB's way is a persistent Iyer, whose only target is winning trophies for his side.
Iyer is also the only captain in IPL history to have led three different teams - Delhi Capitals, Kolkata Knight Riders and now Punjab Kings into IPL finals.
On Sunday, he single-handedly knocked five-time winners Mumbai Indians out of the race with a well-paced innings that saw Iyer shifting gears smartly.
Iyer has been at the forefront of Kings' revival, leading from the front with 603 runs in 16 innings at 54.81, strike rate of nearly 176 and six fifties.
For Bengaluru, without any surprises it's Kohli leading the side with the bat. Striking at 146.53, Kohli scored 614 runs in 14 innings at an average 55.82.
However, Punjab has two more batters in the top 20 run scorers this season. With openers Prabhsimran (523) at 11th and Priyansh Arya (451) at 13th place. The Challengers have only one name apart from Kohli - Phi Salt (387) at 20th place.
Punjab also has a strong batting line-up who can come-in and bat at any situation. Australia's Inglis and Stoinis or young Indian talent - Nehal Wadhera, Shashank Singh are all match-winners.
RCB also has big names like Rajat, Mayank, Livingstone, Jitesh, Romario and Krunal. However only Jitesh and Mayank are in a good touch, while the others didn't perform as much.
Nevertheless, RCB's bowling has been the stand out this season, which helped them win all their away matches.
In Qualifier 1 match, Hazlewood-led bowling attack unleashed on Punjab Kings batter bundling them out for just 101.
Along with Josh Hazlewood (21), who is at number 4 in the Purple Cap race, Krunal Pandya (15) and Bhuvneshwar Kumar (15) also find a spot at 15 and 16 respectively.
Punjab's Arshdeep Singh (18), Marco Jansen (16) and Yuzvendra Chahal (15) are featured in the top 20 wicket-takers list.
What the Captains Said:

A hungry Iyer, who didn't celebrate after his dominating innings against Mumbai Indians in the Qualifier 2, said, "It's not yet finished. We have another match tomorrow. From that mindset, my approach was that my job is half done. I have to come back tomorrow."

Referring to Kohli, Patidar told media on Monday during his pre-match press conference, "Of course. I think he has given a lot of years to RCB and the international side also. We will try to do our best in the game."

Pitch report:

The surface at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmadabad is generally batting friendly. 200+ scores have been quite possible this season, with an average first innings score of 219.

The venue saw 200 plus scores in 9 matches out of the 11 total games played here.

With even pace and bounce, the ball comes nicely onto the bat allowing batters to play their shots freely. However, bowlers also will find a little movement initially and as the game progresses spinners will get a slight advantage.

Before the Qualifier 2, only once in seven times a chasing team has won at Ahmadabad in IPL 2025. Iyer and PBKS after becoming the "only" team to beat the mighty Mumbai Indians chasing a 200-run target, took the tally to 2-8.

Nevertheless, team winning the toss may prefer batting first keeping in mind the dew factor.

Winning Probability:

Both teams finished with 19 points each at the end of the league stage, but Punjab Kings securing the Number 1. spot with a better NRR. However, the big loss in Qualifier 1 might have slightly dented the confidence of Iyer-led team.

Punjab Kings has a better record at Narendra Modi Stadium winning 5 out of the 7 matches the side played here. While RCB playing six matches in Ahmadabad hold a 3-3 record.

Both the teams rely strongly on their top three batters, with RCB having an edge of getting quick break-throughs, thanks to Hazlewood. Nevertheless, PBKS also has a solid middle and lower order batting line-up. While RCB's Tim David is doubtful for the big match.

Krunal Pandya who started good for RCB, slowed down, while Chahal can be an advantage in the middle overs for Punjab.

After finding their way back into the final, the momentum is with PBKS and will walk in as the 'favorites.' We predict a 55-45 win probability (PBKS holding 55).

( Source : Deccan Chronicle with agency inputs )
Next Story