What's Left of Monsoon Likely to See Dry Days Ahead
Hope rests on BoB doing a July in August
Hyderabad:Proving yet again that weather forecasts can be hit-and-miss exercises despite using the best possible forecast models, rainfall in Telangana, which was expected to be above normal for August, is already in a deficit, one that is steep and likely to get steeper as September rolls in.
“As per the forecast at the beginning of the month, rainfall was expected to be above normal to above normal in north, and northeast Telangana districts. In the west and southern Telangana, the prediction was for normal to below normal rain. But we are already witnessing a 40 per cent overall deficit this month for the state,” senior IMD scientist G.N.R.S. Murthy said.
However, there might still be some hope for the state. In the form of a depression forming over the Bay of Bengal as was the case in July, that drove good to heavy spells of rain in the second half of the month, and into the first week of August. But this is still in the ‘if and but’ stage. “The next four to five days will not see much rainfall activity on the scale we saw in July. But if a low pressure or depression forms over the Bay, which we hope might happen towards the last week of this month, then we might get good rains again for a few days over some parts of the state that might help wipe out the deficit,” the IMD scientist said.
On the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition – a warmer Arabian Sea compared to temperatures over the Bay of Bengal – which traditionally offset the adverse impact of El Nino, Murthy said as per IMD’s observations, the condition was still in a neutral phase, and was likely to remain so till the end of the southwest monsoon season. But there is some dichotomy here, with some international models noting that the IOD was turning positive. “Again, this is a wait and watch situation,” he said.
Meanwhile, Skymet, the private weather forecaster, has said that against the 94 per cent of long period average (data of 50 years) predicted at the beginning of the monsoon season, it was downgrading the overall rainfall to 85 per cent for the country. In an advisory it issued on Monday, Skymet said nationwide August rainfall was predicted to be 84 per cent of the LPA, while for September it is expected to be 80 per cent. Skymet also said that with E Nino strengthening further, coupled with the IOD’s uncertainty, the rest of the monsoon season could be under their shadows.
Predictions vs Reality
IMD expected above-normal to normal rain over half of Telangana in August. But the month has already seen 40% overall deficit.
A late August depression over Bay of Bengal, if one forms and moves over the state, may provide relief.
Skymet says rainfall to be 85% of long period average (LPA; 50-year-data), less than originally hoped for 94%.
Skymet predicts 84% LPA rainfall in August, 80% LPA in September.
