Telangana Braces For Warmer November Days; Showers Likely In Week 1
very strong El Nino conditions are likely to persist through November and December: The IMD
HYDERABAD: Telangana is likely to see warmer-than-usual days through November, even as rain is expected in several districts during the first week of the month. The forecast comes after an unusually dry October, which appears to have added very little to the state’s rainfall total.
The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) November outlook, issued on Saturday, predicted above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of Telangana. “In simple terms, daytime temperatures are expected to be higher than the usual November average for the region. The IMD’s map shows the likelihood of above-normal temperatures,” an IMD scientist told Deccan Chronicle.
The IMD has also said very strong El Nino conditions are likely to persist through November and December. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are expected to continue until December.
The rainfall outlook also pointed to below-normal rainfall over much of Telangana. The IMD’s specific forecast of rainfall below 77 per cent of the long-period average (LPA, based on 50-year rainfall record) was for five south peninsular meteorological subdivisions.
The rain forecast came amid substantial seasonal shortfall. TGDPS data show that Telangana received 628.2 mm of rainfall between June 1 and October 31, against the normal 830.7 mm. The state is short by 202.5 mm, which is 24 per cent.
The deficit was particularly high in parts of southern Telangana. Jogulamba Gadwal recorded 50 per cent less rainfall than normal, followed by Narayanpet at 44 per cent. Nalgonda and Nagarkurnool were each 42 per cent deficient, while Hanumakonda recorded a 41 per cent shortfall. Hyderabad was 34 per cent below normal and Medchal-Malkajgiri 39 per cent.
October appeared to have been the weakest month. A comparison of TGDPS cumulative rainfall figures at the end of September and October suggested that the state received approximately 12.7 mm during October, against an estimated normal of 90.1 mm - a shortfall of around 86 per cent.
The showers forecast for early November may bring some relief, particularly to districts facing large rainfall deficits. But a few days of rain will not, by themselves, make up the shortfall accumulated since June.
For the immediate future, rain is expected to return to parts of the state. The IMD has forecast light to moderate rain or thundershowers at isolated places on until November 1. Rain is likely at many places on until November 3. The forecast does not cover rainfall that may occur due to developing weather and cyclone systems.
An isolated heavy rainfall warning has been issued for nine districts on November 2 including Adilabad, Komaram Bheem Asifabad, Mancherial, Jagtial, Mahbubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Wanaparthy, Narayanpet and Jogulamba Gadwal. On November 3, the warning for Mahabubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Wanaparthy, Narayanpet and Jogulamba Gadwal.
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph are likely across all districts on November 1 and 4. In the districts under the heavy rain warning on November 2 and 3, wind speeds could reach 40-50 kmph. Isolated rain is also forecast on November 5 and 6, though no warnings have been issued for those days.
Hyderabad is likely to see partly cloudy skies, light rain or drizzle and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph until November 4. The IMD has classified the likely impact as very low across all 12 city zones.
