Poor, Below-Normal Rains on the Cards for Telangana in Sept
Monsoon Tail to Swing Drier, Hotter
Hyderabad:The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that September, the final month of the southwest monsoon season, is expected to be even more unkind to Telangana which is already reeling under an average minus-17 per cent deficit rainfall, with the standalone deficit for August standing at minus-38 per cent.
In its forecast for September released on Monday, the IMD has said that Telangana will have a drier month, in addition to experiencing warmer than normal temperatures. On what could be in store beyond September, the IMD said that the El Nino was only getting stronger, and it is likely to remain in place till summer sets in next year.
IMD director-General Dr Sanjay Mahapatra, during an online press conference, said that forecast models for the August rainfall in peninsular India, particularly Telangana, had predicted normal to above-normal rain in much of the state, but it turned out that the state did not receive the expected rain.
If the IMD’s September forecasts hold, then the below-normal rain in Telangana in September which is only expected to further add to the rainfall deficit, could impact groundwater levels. The forecasts for peninsular India also put nearly all of Maharashtra and Karnataka in the below-normal category that could in turn impact inflows into reservoirs on the Krishna and Godavari rivers in Telangana.
On the current state of El Nino, the IMD said it has become stronger, and was expected to stay put till February next, and could even last in a fairly strong phase during March, April and May of 2027. However, Dr Mahapatra said it was too early to predict or hazard a guess on what impact such lingering of El Nino could mean for the 2027 southwest monsoon season.
Though some low pressure areas are expected to form over the Bay of Bengal in September, they are likely to follow the five similar weather systems that formed in August and move in a north westerly direction and take their rain to Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and parts of Odisha.
Dr Mahapatra said though there were some hopes that the Indian Ocean Dipole conditions were emerging into a positive phase, this was laid low as the IOD conditions returned to their neutral state. Positive IOD conditions can help overcome the El Nino impact with a warmer Arabian Sea driving rains over peninsular India.
