Monsoon To Disappear From State In October

The deep depression in the Bay of Bengal that was slowly making its way towards the north Andhra Pradesh coast on Wednesday could well be the last big hope for some rain in Telangana.

And it will not be long too before the monsoon withdraws, probably between the first and third weeks of October, from over Telangana. This makes important for Telangana, present deep depression and any possible rainfall it might bring to the state which is reeling under an average 20 per cent deficit so far.

“The present system is a somewhat unusual occurrence given the different meteorological conditions. Three things are happening simultaneously. First, there is a strong El Nino which normally suppresses rain over India. Second, during El Nino years, most weather systems that form over the Bay of Bengal are moderate depressions, and the present deep depression is an uncommon one. Even more uncommon was that it appeared as if it was ready to turn into a cyclone. And third, the monsoon has begun withdrawing from India, making even the deep depression, along with El Nino presence, something of a rarity,” a senior meteorologist explained.

While the IMD has predicted heavy to some very heavy rain in north eastern Telangana over the next two to three days thanks to the deep depression that was making its way onto land on Wednesday evening, just how much rain it will bring to the state is still in the realm of a best case scenario guesswork.

“As per the models, northeast Telangana should get extremely heavy rain. But different models are showing different paths that the deep depression might take once it makes landfall. One shows that it might move towards Telangana before curving back and going north, while others show it going northwards once it comes over land. Just how much rain Telangana will get will depend on which way the weather system decides to go,” the meteorologist said.

As on September 23, 19 of Telangana’s 33 districts were in the deficient rainfall category with the shortfalls ranging from -23 per cent to -45 per cent. And while the rest of the 14 districts are classified as having received ‘normal’ rainfall in meteorological terms that allow this category to have any place where deficiency can be up to -19 per cent, of these 14 districts, 11 have actual deficits ranging between -1 per cent to -19 per cent, according to data from the Telangana Development Planning Society.