Hyderabad: The India Meteorological Department on Friday announced that it was downgrading its monsoon prediction from 92 to 90 per cent of the long period average (LPA, data of 50 years of rainfall), indicating that the country as a whole would experience deficient rainfall.
As things stand now, and as per the IMD’s latest forecast, Telangana may escape some of the wrath of a below normal monsoon.
Releasing its second long range forecast in New Delhi, the IMD said it expected below normal rainfall during the monsoon season across India this year. The IMD, which revised its forecast to 90 per cent rainfall of the LPA with a plus or minus 4 range, described the emerging situation as a ‘below normal’ rainfall season.
The IMD stopped short of saying India was likely set for a year of deficient rain. The IMD said it placed a 60 per cent forecast probability of less than 90 per cent of LPA, which might see the country experiencing a year of deficient rainfall as anything less than 90 per cent is categorised as ‘deficient’ by the IMD.
Deccan Chronicle had on May 27 reported that the IMD was expected to downgrade the monsoon forecast in its report ‘India staring at a poorer than predicted monsoon: Sources’.
“In the next week, the monsoon will progress over most parts of Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and some parts of the extreme south peninsula,” he said.
Even at the ‘below-normal’ rainfall category which the IMD said this year’s monsoon was likely to be at this point of time, India could see “challenges for agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation, and ecosystem sustainability, along with increased risks of drought, heat stress, and pressure on drinking water resources,” raising prospects of a possible harrowing year in several parts of the country.
For Telangana, as per Friday’s forecast, the prospects may not be that bad with more than half the state, except parts of northeast and southern Telangana, as the IMD said parts of the state could receive normal to above normal rainfall over the monsoon season. June could be a fairly good month for Telangana, the IMD forecast said.
Friday’s forecasts, the IMD said was for June and that it would issue a fresh forecast for July in the last week of June.
Despite prospects of decent rain in the state, isolated regions of Telangana will continue seeing “above normal heatwave days” during June, the IMD cautioned.
These conditions will also be experienced in many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh and isolated regions of Maharashtra, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. Rajasthan and Jharkhand, however, are expected to have below normal heatwave days during June.
The rain scene
Forecast reduced from 92 per cent of long period average (LPA) 90%
LPA takes into account rainfall data from 1971 to 2020.
Monsoon still over the sea, to make landfall in Kerala in June first week.
IMD had earlier predicted landfall on May 26, says it is not a delay and within the expected range.
El Nino formed, expected to get stronger
No help expected from Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), conditions to stay neutral through the monsoon season
Challenges ahead for :
Agriculture
Water availability
Hydropower generation
Ecosystem sustainability
Increased risks of drought
Heat stress
Pressure on drinking water resources
June heatwave season
Impact on public health
Water availability
Power consumption
Vulnerable groups - elderly, children, outdoor workers, and persons with pre-existing health conditions, particularly at risk from prolonged exposure to extreme heat
