As monsoon stutters, drought prospects rising for Telangana
Hyderabad: Telangana is staring into the face of a serious drought this year with forecasts for the rest of the monsoon season holding little to no prospects of rains of any significance, either in the state, or even worse, in Maharashtra and Karnataka, where much of the catchment for Telangana’s two life giving rivers, Godavari and Krishna lie.
Even as the India Meteorological Department has said that Telangana will see less than normal rain till the third week of July, it also added in its latest extended range forecast till July 22, that in addition to Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka too are set to witness below normal rainfall.
Pointing to an even worse rest of the rainy season, and not just for July, was the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts which said Telangana as a whole, is set to register a -25 per cent rain in July, to be followed by a somewhat better -9 per cent for August, with the real sting reserved for September, the month in which the ECMWF said Telangana could see a massive -42 per cent deficit in rain. This deficit trend is expected to continue into October too, the first month after the end of the southwest monsoon season, according to ECMWF predictions.
While absence of any significant rains over Telangana are a matter of concern, of significantly more concern is the monsoon’s behaviour over the Godavari and Krishna river basins, much of which are spread over Maharashtra and Karnataka. According to the ECMWF, the Godavari basin witnessed a -39 per cent of rain in June, with -6 per cent expected in July, followed by a neutral August with September winding up the June-July-August-September (JJAS) monsoon season with a -40 per cent deficient rain.
The story appears similar for the Krishna river basin too with this region receiving -33 per cent rain in June, with an overall predicted -23 per cent over this region this rainy season.
Meanwhile, it is learnt that the state government has been informed that the current situation, as well as what is to play out in the next few months is not expected to bode well at all for the state. The outlook is learnt to be that with several reservoirs slowly bottoming out with respect to their storage, any prospect of any reservoir actually getting filled, let alone getting floods that will force gates to be opened is low, while the impact on this year’s Kharif crop season, is expected to be high, with the poor rains impacting not just sowing, but also any crop that actually reaches a standing stage, it is learnt.
What it looks like for Telangana
Normal – 887mm
Forecast: 673mm
Average deficit: -24%
July: -25%; Districts range: -5% to -44%
August: -9%; Districts range: -4% to -17%
September: -42%; Districts range: -37% to -45%
October (Outside JJAS): Districts range: -46% to -60%
Godavari Basin
Normal – 1,172 mm
Forecast – 937 mm
Average deficit: 20%
Krishna Basin
Normal – 675 mm
Forecast – 520 mm
Average deficit: -23%
