Stakes High for AIADMK in Battle for Honour in Dharapuram

Coimbatore:The stakes are very high for the AIADMK in the by-election to the Dharapuram assembly constituency where it triumphed six times and its alliance partner PMK won once, post-emergency. The AIADMK which won this seat in the 2026 polls, pushing the TVK to the third place, desperately needs a win to keep its vote bank and flock intact to check further desertions.

Post-emergency, the AIADMK won here in the 1977, 1980, 1984, 1991, 2011 and 2026 assembly elections while its ally PMK won in the 2001 assembly poll. Though this shows the dominance of the AIADMK in Dharapuram, the TVK’s emergence as the major political party and as the ruling party after the last April assembly elections changed the election equation as well as the political dynamics in the state which saw the deterioration of the DMK alliance and more desertions from the AIADMK including the resignation of its MLA Sathyabama, who is contesting on the TVK ticket now, forcing this by-election.

While TVK president and Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay’s telling influence among the new generation voters besides the welfare schemes initiated by his government are expected to bring more votes to the TVK in Dharapuram, the AIADMK which had been on the backfoot electorally after the demise of chief minister Jayalalithaa in 2016 is struggling to hold its foot firm in Dharapuram constituency, according to political analysts.

Analysts also noted that the present AIADMK leaders blaming the TVK for accommodating Sathyabama to destabilise the party and forcing the byelection may not go well with the voters as its ally BJP did the same tricks in Karnataka in 2018 and in Madhya Pradesh in 2020, wherein some of the Congress MLAs resigned, joined BJP and contested in the same constituencies and got elected to bring BJP governments in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh then.

''Moreover, the 2026 assembly election trends show that those who supported AIADMK in the past decades to oppose DMK changed their mindset and began to support the TVK to oppose DMK that saw AIADMK finishing third in the 2026 polls in the state besides losing deposit in a few constituencies. Those MLAs and others who resigned from AIADMK had been blaming that AIADMK supremo Edappadi Palaniswamy chose to go with DMK to form a government which turned out to be unpalatable for the MGR and Jayalalithaa loyalists as both the leaders suffered humiliation at the hands of the DMK. For this allegation, Edappadi Palaniswamy failed to come out with a concrete answer and denial which may further dent the AIADMK vote base,'' analysts noted.

“As far as the DMK is concerned, which saw its 24-party alliance crumble in the 2026 April elections, it is trying its best to stay in the contention. It also chose to ignore why it allotted seats to Anitha Radakrishnan and Cumbam Ramakrishnan who resigned from AIADMK and MDMK as MLAs and joined the DMK to contest the by-elections in the same constituencies when the DMK came to power in 2006. Without Congress, the DMK may not garner more support as its alliance now looks in peril. The CPI is contesting the by-election to show its strength and hoping to spring a surprise. In the April 2026 polls, the AIADMK secured 40.56 percent votes, while the DMK secured 32.20 percent votes and the TVK garnered 23.23 percent votes. But, the scenario changed now as the TVK hopes to turn the table now and expected that a slide in the DMK and AIADMK vote share will help it win the poll this by-election. If TVK’s hopes realise and would turn true, then the DMK and AIADMK are fighting hard for the second spot, ” analysts added.