Kharif Crop in Telangana, Punjab, Rajasthan to Be Hit by Excess Rainfall

Chennai: The widespread excess rains during the monsoon have taken the rainfall distortion index to its highest positive value in 14 years. While the Kharif crop of states like Telangana, Rajasthan and Punjab, could be affected by the excess rains, the Rabi crop will benefit due to high moisture levels in the soil.

In the 2025 southwest monsoon, the Rainfall Distortion Index (RDI) is at the highest positive value of 18.7 in 14 years, compared with 17.9 in 2024 and a five-year average of 9.9, according to Crisil. This means the monsoon was higher in geographical spread with excess rainfall. In terms of the Kharif area impacted, since 2012, 2025 saw the highest incidence of excess rainfall in a season, except for 2022. Though excess rainfall was higher in 2022, 15 per cent Kharif area also had a deficit that year compared to 5 per cent in 2025. Hence the RDI is highest in 2025.

While rainfall was 8 per cent above the Long Period Average, there was excess rainfall in 10 states, which together represent 58 per cent of India’s Kharif-growing area. These include Telangana, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal, Odisha and Madhya Pradesh in northwest, central and southern regions. Of the top 20 kharif-growing states, 10 had excess rainfall, compared with five in 2024.

Excess rains will affect the Kharif output in Punjab, Rajasthan and Telangana, although it is not expected to have a significant impact at the countrywide level. While the full impact is yet to be known, cotton, rice, and horticulture are likely to be affected.

The excess rainfall is good news for the next Rabi season. Abundant rain has improved the groundwater and reservoir levels, which is beneficial for the Rabi crops that rely on irrigation. If there are no adverse weather events and the upcoming rabi season is healthy, we would see the third consecutive successful harvest, finds Crisil.