Just Spamming |In the Season for Alliances of Convenience
The leaders in the parties have not asked themselves how the voters would accept such a coalition.
Nothing surged ahead much last week in the State’s political firmament probably because everyone believed in the ancient Tamil saying ‘Thai piranthal, vazhi pirakum’ (The advent of the Tamil month Thai will open up new avenues) and were waiting for the Pongal holidays to get over. What the coming week holds for them, however, is dicey since the wishes and aspirations of the political class now are rather diverse. Even within the parties, leaders do not think alike or share the same objectives. For example, the Congress that should be arriving at a resolution on the tricky alliance question soon is obviously a divided house with different honchos speaking in different voices.
In the case of the BJP, which is also looking forward to the finalization of its coalition for the coming Assembly elections before Prime Minister Narendra Modi comes down to address a meeting at Madurantakam on January 23, the alliance proposed to be cobbled up is a bundle of contradictions. For one, the two factions of the PMK, one headed by founder S Ramadoss and the other by his son Anbumani Ramadoss, who were daggers drawn till the other day, are said to be accommodated in the same alliance that is the National Democratic Alliance or NDA. That is not the only paradox that might be bogging down the NDA in the State.
Even the various splinters of the erstwhile monolithic AIADMK are sought to be tied to the NDA by the BJP leaders, who are keen on not letting any ‘AIADMK voter,’ referring to the acolytes of late leaders like M G Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa, stray away and go outside the alliance fold. So, all those members of the splinter groups who were expelled by the present general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami and his clique will now be in the alliance even though they are not wanted inside the AIADMK, which is a paradox in itself.
Another obvious discord in the alliance is Palaniswami not acknowledging the umbrella alliance that is the NDA in his speeches and only seeking votes for the AIADMK by exhorting people to bring back MGR rule while the BJP has been harping on Tamil Nadu going under the control of NDA. Whether the two parties will be able to reconcile to these conflicting aspirations – AIADMK wanting to win the Assembly on its own strength and form its own government and the BJP keen on leading the government as it has managed in other States – is not clear now.
So, when they go to the people for votes how they would explain the contradictions is something to be watched. The leaders in the parties have not asked themselves how the voters would accept such a coalition. What they believe in is that a rainbow coalition will prompt the supporters of all the parties (or those who had supported the parties for some reason some time) to continue being loyal and prefer the alliance in which it is now. Even if the coalition was a House of Babel in terms of ideological moorings, they will vote in unison, the BJP top brass believes.
Even the AIADMK honchos showing no interest in sharing power with the BJP and acting indifferently to the alliance has not bothered the BJP leaders, who probably believe that they could, or know how to, bring the ally around using their experiences elsewhere in the country. They now want to concentrate on facing the elections and winning more seats without raising such issues. Perhaps they are hopeful because the rival alliance led by the DMK too has not displayed any signs of unity, in the sense that the Congress leaders have contrasting aspirations. Since the DMK is said to have made it clear that there was no scope for a coalition government in the event of the alliance getting a majority, a disquiet has creeped into the Congress camp.
So they are also awaiting the outcome of the meeting in New Delhi, purported to have been arranged to facilitate the Congress leaders from the State speak their mind in front of top leaders like Rahul Gandhi who matter. Since many of the leaders have found in actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) an alternative to the DMK, they want the leadership to snap ties with the DMK and drift towards the TVK. Whether the Congress will be able to win seats by aligning with TVK is a big question that those advocating the change in alliance are not addressing. They believe that they could demand more seats, gain an opportunity to field more candidates in the election and also get a share in power if that alliance wins.
If the TVK, for which the coming Assembly polls will be the maiden electoral outing, fails to make it, it will also bring down the Congress along with it. Such a result will not be detrimental to the future of TVK that can wait for the next election to recoup and fight again. But it could be disastrous for the over 140 years old Congress. Yet, a group of Congress leaders have reportedly written to their high command to snap ties with the DMK, saying that it was opposing Hindutva and Hindi vehemently and that image could affect the prospects of the Congress at the national level. In such a backdrop, whatever the Congress decides, the outcome could be historic.
