DMK Front Runner in the Assembly Elections: Analysis
Urging the BJP to avoid mentioning Hindi imposition, three-language formula and Sanatan Dharma in its rallies, the report said such references measurably increased DMK’s vote share.
Chennai: Terming the DMK-led alliance as the frontrunner in the coming Assembly elections, an analysis by New Delhi-based Press Media & Journalists Council (PMJC), an independent media and journalism body, predicted the Secular Progressive Alliance in the State winning 115 to 125 seats and found Chief Minister M K Stalin to be the most preferred Chief Ministerial candidate with 27 percent people supporting him.
Releasing the ‘comprehensive political intelligence report’ in Chennai on Thursday, the PMJC founder and chairman Sanjay Agarwal said elections 2026 would see the people determining whether the ‘Dravidian Model’ of welfare was fit for a second term or anti-incumbency could translate into a change in mandate.
The report, ‘Mandate 2026’, a whitepaper that synthesized data from its own ground reporting, from six independent opinion polls, the Election Commission’s voter list, Tamil Nadu’s Economic Survey 2024-25 said that ‘anti-incumbency’ was real in the State, where 61 per cent of respondents wanted to change their MLA and 53 percent of them said that corruption was on the rise under DMK.
It said the BJP, which faced a ‘cultural misfit’ problem in the State in general and a vacuum in the leadership after the resignation of former State president K Annamalai, would win at most 15 to 20 seats in the Kongu belt and nowhere else.
Urging the BJP to avoid mentioning Hindi imposition, three-language formula and Sanatan Dharma in its rallies, the report said such references measurably increased DMK’s vote share.
The TVK’s structural weakness was the gap between social media reach and ground machinery, the report said, predicting the party with the largest Instagram following of 4.7 million winning only 20 to 40 seats.
On Naam Tamilar Katchi, it said its vote share was concentrated in northern Tamil Nadu and described AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami as the ‘most aggressive challenger.’
However it flagged the fiscal implications of the AIADMK's combined welfare promises with a possibility of draining the exchequer. Giving Rs 10,000 per family by ignoring infrastructure could be fiscally reckless, it said.
