Satheeshan Emerges As Congress's "Impact Player" Post Nilambur Triumph

Sixty-one-year-old Satheeshan has been winning the Paravur assembly constituency consistently since 2001. His political career received a significant boost in 2021 when the Congress appointed him as the leader of the opposition. This elevation coincided with Pinarayi Vijayan's historic back-to-back victory in the assembly polls, the first time any party achieved this since the 1970s. As a result, Satheeshan faced a formidable challenge right from day one.

On one side was Pinarayi Vijayan, one of the tallest leaders of the left in Kerala, backed by a strong CPM organisation. On the other side was the Congress party, which was experiencing a national decline. Political observers were sceptical about the Congress's ability to revive itself in the state, especially following A K Antony's retirement, Oommen Chandy's passing and ongoing disagreements among senior leaders.

Despite these challenges, Satheeshan began to confront the LDF both within and outside the Assembly. Priyanka Gandhi's victory from Wayanad boosted the morale of Congress workers. Unlike Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka actively engages in the party's organisational matters. During her recent, intensive campaign in Nilambur, she pledged to bring Congress back to power in 2026.

In contrast to other states, the Congress Party has a relatively high strike rate in Kerala when it comes to electoral contests. The UDF has won nearly all the assembly by-elections held recently, most of the constituencies already held by the party, with significant victory margins, holding on to its popularity among voters.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Congress-led UDF won 18 out of 20 seats. But Congress leadership is aware that assembly elections are a different ball game. Now, after winning Nilambur seat from the LDF, Congress workers are starting to see a glimmer of hope.

On the other hand, the LDF was pretty confident. It made bold claims about winning the Nilambur seat, framing it as a referendum on the performance of the Pinarayi Vijayan government. They even argued that a victory would signal the beginning of Pinarayi 3.0. However, following their defeat, LDF leaders have changed their narrative. They now contend that the loss was not a result of the government's shortcomings, but rather due to a coalition of communal and fundamentalist forces against them.

Amidst political claims and counterclaims, many believe that the Nilambur election result has boosted Congress's morale and raised hopes for a change in power in 2026. For the LDF, it's a wake-up call.

However, Kerala will need to wait for concrete indications until the local body elections, which are scheduled for later this year. Traditionally, the LDF has had an upper hand in local body polls, often securing more than 60 per cent of the seats. A shortfall this time could deliver a positive message to the opposition.

The BJP, which opened its account in Lok Sabha from Thrissur, could not even save its deposit in Nilambur. The party's experiment of fielding a Christian candidate also failed miserably.

The BJP will need to consider adopting a new strategy.

Politics in Kerala has intensified following the Nilambur results. Those who were confidently claiming Pinarayi government's return in 2026, are now forced to rethink, as they realise the battle will not be easy.

Conversely, a glimmer of hope has emerged for Congress after Nilambur. Over all the political dynamics of the state are becoming increasingly interesting.