Kerala Polls 2026: A Battle Of Promises, Undercurrents And Uncertainties

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: With just a day left for campaigning, Kerala heads into the 2025 assembly polls amid a charged atmosphere of claims and counterclaims by the principal political fronts.

Over the past 22 days, candidates of the CPM led LDF, Congress-led UDF and BJP-led NDA have braved the summer heat to reach voters, offering promises that range from social welfare expansion to vision of a "Viksita Keralam".

On April 9, a majority of the 2.71 crore registered voters will line up at polling stations - many having already made their firm choices, others deciding at the last moment. The slogans echoing across the state capture the mood: The LDF's "Mattarund LDF allathe (Who else but LDF?), UDF's "Keralam jayikkum, UDF nayikkum (Kerala will win, UDF will lead) and NDA's Maarathathu marum, Keralam Valarum (This time change will come and Kerala will progress).

Do or die battle for LDF

For the LDF, this election is nothing short of a do-or-die battle. With West Bengal and Tripura lost, Kerala remains its last stronghold. At 90, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan dominates the campaign trail, his towering cutouts and posters symbolising the push for a third term.

The LDF banks on its record, as was evident on Monday when Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan released the government's report card, listing the achievements; declaring Kerala free of extreme poverty, building nearly five lakh homes for the homeless, infrastructure development, NH development, ensuring uninterrupted welfare pensions, advancing education and maintaining communal harmony. Confident there is no anti-incumbency, the front insists voters will contrast its decade in power with what it calls the "dark period" of the 2011-2016 UDF government.

Women's welfare is a central plank, with promises of safe travel, childcare, skill training, and rural economic initiatives aimed at empowering 20 lakh housewives.

Prestigious battle for UDF

The Congress-led UDF entered the fray brimming with confidence, aiming for a decisive comeback. Opposition Leader V D Satheeshan, 61, who spearheaded the campaign, has boldly set a target of 100 seats in the 140-member assembly.

"People have made up their mind for change," he asserts, pointing to the UDF's string of victories since 2021- dominance in assembly by-elections, a sweeping win with 18 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 and control of over 60 per cent of wards in 2026 local body polls. He believes anti-incumbency will translate into a landslide.

The UDF manifesto leans heavily on welfare guarantees; the Indira Guarantee promises free KSRTC bus travel for women, Rs 1000 monthly support for college -going girls, and a hike in welfare pensions to Rs 3000. The Oommen Chandy Health Insurance Scheme pledges Rs 25 lakh coverage per family, while youth are offered Rs 5 lakh interest-free loans to start ventures. Added to this is Rahul Gandhi's flagship NYAY scheme, assuring Rs 6000 to BPL families.

Slow yet Steady growth for BJP

The BJP-led NDA, gradually carving space in Kerala's traditionally bipolar politics, is eying a breakthrough with hopes of winning around half a dozen seats. The party has concentrated its efforts on constituencies such as Nemom, Palakkad, Manjeshwaram and Thrissur.

Though its vote share dipped from nearly 20 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls to 14.7 per cent in the 2025 local body elections, BJP leaders insist the tide will turn in the assembly polls.

"People are fed up with the match fixing of LDF-UDF; they want a change. We are promising fast-paced development," says BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign visit energised cadres, reinforcing the party's vision of a "Viksita Keralam" (Developed Kerala).

The BJP's promises include a Rs 3000 monthly welfare pension, Rs 3000 support for women heads of poor households, widows, and senior citizens above 70, and a Bhakshaya Arogya Suraksha Card offering Rs 2500 monthly recharge for BPL women and a high-speed rail corridor to transform connectivity.

Undercurrents of change

While no clear wave is visible on the ground, observers sense an undercurrent for change, driven by fatigue with years of

Left rule. The UDF argues that the trend from local body polls will carry into the assembly elections. "The fear of defeat has forced LDF to have a secret deal with the BJP," says Satheeshan.

The Congress-led front is banking on strong minority support - Muslims and Christians together make up nearly 47 per cent of Kerala's population - along with a growing share of Hindu votes. "Even in constituencies where Hindus form over 50 per cent, we performed strongly in the Lok Sabha and local body polls," says Satheeshan, pointing also to the Sabarimala gold theft case as a factor alienating Hindus from the Left.

The LDF counters that minorities will remain loyal, citing its

uncompromising stand on secularism. "The Congress, which is the principal opposition party in Chhattisgarh, watched silently as Christians were attacked there. They are not ready to repeal draconian laws targeting minorities," Pinarayi Vijayan reminded Congress.

Meanwhile, the BJP hopes to consolidate Hindu support and make inroads among Christians, buoyed by its 19.7 per cent vote share in the Lok Sabha polls. Yet, concerns over the FCRA Bill and reported attacks on the nuns and church leaders in states like Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh leave the party cautious.

A close contest ahead

Despite the claims and counterclaims of political parties, pollsters believe that whichever front wins, the margin will be narrow. Unlike 2021, when LDF swept 99 of 140 seats, there is little sign of a landslide this time.

One reason even ordinary voters find it hard to predict the outcome is the break from Kerala’s old "revolving door" pattern of governments. The LDF's repeat victory in 2021disrupted that rhythm, making the current contest harder to read.

Much has changed since then, and with shifting political currents, Kerala's 2026 assembly polls remain nearly too close to call - at least for the pollsters.