Southwest monsoon to be normal over the country: Skymet
9 April 2025 2:23 PM IST9 April 2025 2:23 PM IST
Releasing the report on Tuesday, the website said the LPA for June-September monsoon months is 868.6 millimetres.
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Visakhapatnam: Private weather website Skymet forecast a normal southwest monsoon for India to the tune of 103 per cent of long period average (LPA). The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus five per cent.
Releasing the report on Tuesday, the website said the LPA for June-September monsoon months is 868.6 millimetres.
If the actual rains match the forecast, then it would mean good tidings for the country’s farm sector. It would help the government in controlling food inflation in FY26.
Sources said the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) will release its first official forecast for the monsoon season by the middle of this month.
Releasing its forecast for the 2025 monsoon season, Skymet managing director Jatin Singh said this year’s occurrence of El Nino, which usually corrupts Indian monsoon, is ruled out. “The remnants of La Nina and ENSO-neutral together will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome,” Singh underlined.
He said the initial forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will work in tandem with ENSO for better monsoon prospects.
“Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tend to produce a worthy monsoon. The second half of the season is expected to be better than the primal phase,” Singh added.
Region-wise, Skymet said it expects good monsoon over western and southern India. More importantly, rains over the core rain-fed zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to be adequate.
“Excess rainfall is likely all along the Western Ghats, more so over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Goa,” Skymet said.
However, north-east India and hilly regions of north India may get less-than-normal rains during this season.
Skymet added that there is a 15 per cent chance of the monsoon being “below normal” and just five per cent chance of it being a drought year.
Sources said the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) will release its first official forecast for the monsoon season by the middle of this month.
Releasing its forecast for the 2025 monsoon season, Skymet managing director Jatin Singh said this year’s occurrence of El Nino, which usually corrupts Indian monsoon, is ruled out. “The remnants of La Nina and ENSO-neutral together will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome,” Singh underlined.
He said the initial forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will work in tandem with ENSO for better monsoon prospects.
“Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tend to produce a worthy monsoon. The second half of the season is expected to be better than the primal phase,” Singh added.
Region-wise, Skymet said it expects good monsoon over western and southern India. More importantly, rains over the core rain-fed zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to be adequate.
“Excess rainfall is likely all along the Western Ghats, more so over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Goa,” Skymet said.
However, north-east India and hilly regions of north India may get less-than-normal rains during this season.
Skymet added that there is a 15 per cent chance of the monsoon being “below normal” and just five per cent chance of it being a drought year.
( Source : Deccan Chronicle )
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