New Delhi: The onset of monsoon in India can now be predicted two weeks earlier than the present system using study of changes taking place in temperatures and humidity in the Western Ghats and North Pakistan, a group of European scientists claimed on Wednesday.
The Indian Meteorogical Department normally announces arrival of monsoon in the last week of May whereas actual onset is around first week of June. "We forecast monsoon on 125th day of the year, which corresponds to May 5, regardless of the year. Therefore, the time until the real onset varies from year to year. But regardless of the year it is more than 30 days earlier than monsoon onset.
"For withdrawal forecasting, the date when we predict depends on the variations of temperature in the NP region. In mid-July, we give predictions for the mid-late September withdrawal.," lead author Veronika Stolbova from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the University of Zurich told PTI in an email interview.
Their predication methodology, which scientists claim, will also be offered to the IMD free of charge. "We are in close contact with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. We are also planning to write to IMD... Tomorrow, we will present this result in one of the largest conferences on Geoscience: the European Geoscience Union, where the method will be presented to a wide audience for the first time," she said.
Accurate predictions help farmer who are able to decide right seeds and sowing time for a better yield which in turn results in better income and increased demand in the economy thereby boosting the industries....