Mamata Banerjee has won. She won against her negative image projected by the Opposition and made manifest in possibly the ugliest campaign ever in West Bengal. It is not just the Trinamul’s victory, but her personal achievement. Ahead of the polls, the Trinamul looked more than ever a ragtag bunch. Investing her personal political capital and stamina, Ms Banerjee then dragged the dubious and desperate along the bumpy poll track and secured a decisive victory. It was not easy. The Trinamul won a stunning 211 seats. This is the highest ever by a single party in recent memory.
But it’s also an election where the BJP emerged as a potentially important third side, winning six seats and garnering over 10 per cent of the vote, less than the 17 per cent it picked up in 2014, but more than it has won in recent elections. The unthinkable alliance of the Congress and the CPM-led Left Front imagined it was a formidable challenger. It found it was a damp squib; the CPM was weaker. Whether this scale of defeat makes it irrevocably weaker is the question.
In contrast, the Congress has done better and has once again made itself an attractive proposition in West Bengal’s revolving-door politics. There were two squeaky clean images in this election; Ms Banerjee’s and CPM boss Surjya Kanta Mishra’s. And one bad egg. Ms Banerjee won because she was a viable leader. Mr Mishra lost as voters clearly don’t feel confident about the CPM and the alliance in general. The only jailed candidate from the Trinamul, Madan Mitra, lost as West Bengal isn’t indifferent about the criminally corrupt; it’s a defeat for Ms Banerjee as he was her biggest gamble. He was kept in jail by the CBI for his links to the Saradha chit-fund scam, he was also seen in the Narada sting video with cash in hand.
And there was the Election Commission. On one hand, the extraordinary lengths to ensure free and fair voting certainly made it difficult for Trinamul’s unruly bunch of election managers in different locations, but on the other, these measures rescued Ms Banerjee and salvaged her reputation as a vote-catcher as she won a fair election. The significance of this election is not limited to West Bengal; it confirms the Trinamul as an independent power centre in national politics, a status Ms Banerjee craved but was unable to achieve till now. In contrast, the CPM’s bid to revive its fortunes has bombed.
It is Ms Banerjee’s false modesty that she claims to be a “simple person” from a “regional party”. She knows fully well she is perceived as a phenomenon in Indian politics. She can join the small independent group that ostensibly keeps an equal distance from the Congress and the BJP, or the front of regional parties that gang up against the BJP, or she can, hypothetically, join forces with the BJP. But it’s clear she has set her sights on weaning the Congress away from the CPM and keeping the BJP dangling by offering issue-based support as and when it suits her.
The preliminary estimates indicate the Trina-mul has improved its voteshare to 45 per cent, up from 2014 when it secured around 44 per cent. This victory is a positive endorsement for Ms Banerjee. Ms Banerjee is no statesman. Nor is she forgiving, generous or level-headed, no matter what she said at noon on Thursday. She has promised to avenge whatever she perceived as an insult or injury in the just-concluded poll campaign.
Her campaign mood was ugly. She has given no indication that it has changed. She has promised to send “sweets” to those who didn’t offend her in the campaign or polling process. This is not a message of building a bridgehead across the political divide she has nurtured and advanced. Episodic turbulence could become the norm now that she is back.
