There are rebellions in virtually every state the Congress once ruled, and there are rebellions in every state that it now rules. And while the political churning is natural, given that the Congress is in opposition and only has a Rajya Sabha where it can thwart the BJP, is it time for the Congress to look within, to examine whether it has a future beyond the Gandhis? Spooked by the spectre of a Narasimha Rao redux, does the ‘first family’ have the courage and the vision to allow the rise from the ranks of a non-Gandhi? Will the Congress come unglued if that happens? Or, is this the BJP, facing anti-incumbency in three key states, doing what it does best – talking up a storm. Aijaz Ilmi of the BJP warns of the perils facing Congress, while Venkatesh Kesari looks at the brighter side for India’s Grand Old Part.
Most mutinies within political parties subside when it’s time to face the people, only to resurface once the battle of the hustings is over as politicians squabble over the spoils. But in the case of the Congress party, the episodic haemorrhagic divisions within the Congress units across most states is a signal of a deeper malaise, a debilitating political ailment which refuses to respond to various palliatives and, in the words of senior Congressmen, calls for radical surgery.
The political climate post-2014 May is a complete rejection of family-run dynastic politics. The regional dynasties that flowered under the central dynasty are in no small measure responsible for self inflicted implosion of the Congress.
The Chavans, the Shindes, the Ranes, Bhujbals, and Pawars, to name a few, besides various sugar and industry fiefdoms promoted over decades by the Congress-NCP have been comprehensively decimated in Maharashtra. Individuals like Gurudas Kamat, a member of the CWC, preferred to resign rather than subject himself to the humiliation of playing second-fiddle to ‘outsiders’ as the issues racking the party in his state remained unaddressed. The fact that there is no inner party mechanism even at the CWC member level for discourse suggests complete ineptitude of both the General Secretary and party leadership. 'Post ipso facto' soothing of frayed nerves after the 'horse had bolted' only denudes the political legitimacy of the top brass.
Earlier in Haryana too, the hegemonic hold of one family over the past 10 years and the potential for much the same in the future by the regional Hooda dynasty has led to the complete evisceration of inner party equations. A self-respecting, political equal like Chaudhary Birendra Singh, along with his supporters, exited and found respect in the BJP.
We have seen similar situations develop in state after state, in Arunachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The refusal of the Congress leadership and their state handlers to engage in political dialogue for many months led to full-blown crises within.
Kalikho Pul, the Congress rebel from Arunachal aspired for more relevance, unwilling to be treated as a minion, was kept at arm’s length and was seen as not even worthy of an hour’s darshan with the leadership. The perception of a haughty top brass that is unwilling to engage in dialogue was what drove over 20 MLAs to walk out en masse from the party and align themselves with the BJP.
The Congress in Assam was a classic example of a regional dynastic hegemon. Gogoi Senior's putr-moh, the love for his MP-son divided the Assam Congress vertically. Senior leaders like Himanto Sharma, despite appealing to the central dynasty for over three years for a greater role, preferred an honourable exit, rather than expend his energies currying favour with disinterested General Secretaries in charge of the Congress’ eastern outposts and the completely out-of-sync supremos who they report to. The perpetuation of the Assam dynasts was in sync with the Congress’ myopic scheme of things.
With states like Meghalaya and Mizoram imploding in similar fashion, a Tripura promoted regional Barman dynasty did the reverse, decimating the Congress by walking out itself. The trigger was the Mahajot of the Congress-Left in West Bengal with which the Congress was at loggerheads for over five decades. The Tripura dynasts refused to be guinea pigs for this new, and failed, experiment. A strong sense of self-preservation took them to the rampaging TMC, flush from its recent political re-invention.
Dual centres of power in an all-India party is but natural but state leaders that are left dangling without recourse to strategizing and staying relevant for the future will perforce look for new pastures. As the Congress cedes its political footprint to regional formations, the BJP’s expansion into newer territories is a given. The complete subsumation of the anti-BJP vote by AAP in Delhi and an expected repeat in Punjab will see the Congress shrink even further. Another repeat of the Congress’ abysmal performance in UP elections in 2017 is certain to set off the fragmentation that is already in motion.
Being led by a Gandhi maybe part of the Congress DNA but despite the commentary, both from within and outside the party, that say that leaders from outside the dynastic command structure should be brought in, as a means of stemming the rot and allowing the leadership to rise from the ranks, this is unlikely to happen.
Indeed, the call for a Congress-mukt Bharat (Congress-free India) was meant for the BJP cadres and anti-Congress regional formations to galvanise into action. Even Prime Minister Modi perhaps had not bargained that his clarion call would see the kind of exodus that has been set in motion by Congress stalwarts and its cadres across India.
Fact is, senior Congress leaders themselves started this process by seeking to end dynastic dominance in most states. However, it must be said that in Andhra Pradesh, it was just the reverse, with the Congress bigwigs denying the dominance of Y.S. Rajashekar Reddy’s legacy, bifurcating the state and setting off its own decimation in a state that had once reposed complete faith in the Congress even during its post-Emergency country-wide electoral rout. Whether the well-entrenched old-guard will ever cede space for a much needed renaissance in the Congress remains an issue.
The fruitless stratagem of Rajya Sabha obstructionism leading to parliamentary gridlock is a tactic that should not be followed by a responsible party. Delaying the GST bill and other reforms originally initiated by themselves can only be counter-productive for the Congress. Intransigence and petulance in Parliament cannot be a permanent policy for self-renewal.
The Rajya Sabha elections, where a P. Chidambaram is fielded from Maharashtra and a Kapil Sibal from Uttar Pradesh, has not been welcomed by the rank and file that sees it as a reward for fighting the ‘first family’s’ legal cases.
The issue before the Congress therefore isn't just about dynastic succession - which upsets the Congress worker as much as the young voter - it's also about the entrenching of the smaller dynasts, and the collective inability of the Congress as a whole to forge a strategy that keeps it relevant and consolidates the states where it is in power.
Time to write a Congress obituary?
(Aijaz Ilmi is a BJP spokesperson)
Slipping away from the hand
Has Congress learnt any lesson from its recent defeat in Assam? Two years before Himanta Biswas Sharma jumped ship to the BJP and gave Amit Shah his winning formula, he had reportedly discussed the same strategy with Rahul Gandhi. Except, the man did not get a hearing, and felt compelled to leave the party.
Since Assam, Congress has lost six MLAs in Tripura, losing its main opposition party status to the TMC; and there are rumblings in Manipur and Meghalaya. Assam, and Hemanta Sharma may well have opened the exit door for Congress from the North East.
In Chattisgarh, BJP three-term chief minister Raman Singh is fast racking up anti-incumbency points as the state moves towards polls in 2018. The Congress had begun to see its own chances rising…until two weeks ago when its strongest leader in the state, former chief minister Ajit Jogi, decided to leave the party, calling the state party unit a ‘B team’ of the BJP. Jogi commands the vote of the dominant Satnami SC community, which comprises nearly half the state’s population. Will Jogi prove to be another Hemanta Sharma for Congress?
When a minister in the Congress government in Arunachal Pradesh, Kalikho Pul, walked out of the party with 29 other MLAs in February, he had one complaint, “the party high command sidelined us.” In short order, he gathered the support of the BJP and became the chief minister of the state, dethroning Congress.
In Odisha, the BJD’s Naveen Patnaik is in his fourth term as chief minister. But, as Arun Jaitley made it clear recently, it’s the BJP which is looking to gain from anti-incumbency when the state heads to polls in 2019, not Congress, which ruled the state for the most part before 2016, but which eventually lost every charismatic leader it had in the state, including Naveen Patnaik’s father Biju Patnaik, to the Janata Party or one of its
splinters.
