By invitation: Now what will Congress do if BJP's veep is from the south?
As Pranab Mukherjee completes his five-year term, it is now more or less certain that Ramnath Kovind will take over as the next President of India. In the run-up to the Presidential elections, a flurry of names did the rounds, both in the media and in political circles, on the likely candidate of the ruling party for the highest constitutional office. But in keeping with the style of the present BJP leadership, the announcement came as a big surprise and Mr Kovind was picked.
Already, discussions have started on who the nominee for Vice-President could be and one can safely assume that none of the names in circulation is likely to make the final cut! Those keen on the position might hope that their name does not find a mention in the media as potential candidates for Vice-President!
It is important to underscore the distinct style of the present BJP leadership (read Prime Minister and party president). If one looks at the manner in which chief minister nominees of the BJP have been chosen in the last three years (save instances where the chief ministerial candidates were announced in advance), it is clear that the final choice is often of the person, whose name was hardly in circulation. Also, most of these nominees score high on the ‘loyalty’ test.
If we were to focus on the current Presidential race and the series of political developments that led up to it, one can clearly discern a clear pattern. While the talk was of arriving at a consensus across the political spectrum in choosing the new President, there was very little serious effort on the part of the key players in both the ruling party and the opposition to arrive at such a consensus. While a Cabinet committee was constituted to hold discussions with the Opposition leaders, it appears that these meetings hardly saw any names being discussed.
Consensus requires consultation, but in the presidential polls, both sides appear to be spoiling for a fight and ready for a test of strength, instead of working consciously towards a consensus. This does not surprise a close observer of contemporary developments, as it appears to be the emerging pattern of politics. The Presidential election does not seem to be so much about electing the “first citizen”, but more about ruling and opposition parties asserting their political agenda.
For the BJP-led NDA, the choice of President appears to be governed by four important factors. First, it had to reflect the style of the present leadership, with the name being revealed to the highest decision making body of the ruling party just a short while before the formal public announcement by the party president.
Second, the ruling party nominee clearly had to be an individual who represents the core values of the party and its frontal organisations. The choice of Mr Kovind categorically reflects this fact. In 2002, when the BJP had an opportunity to play a key role in nominating the Presidential candidate, it was highly dependent on its allies in the NDA and other parties and had to back a non-politician like Abdul Kalam, who had little to do with the party ideology. But this time around, the party was clearly not willing to let go of the opportunity.
Third, the strategy was clearly to ensure that the occupant at Rashtrapati Bhavan would not overshadow the personality of the Prime Minister.
It is natural to expect that in a Parliamentary system, the de facto authority of the office of the Prime Minister should not face even a hint of a challenge from any other constitutional position.
The BJP Presidential candidate clearly fits this requirement. Finally, as was expected, the BJP hopes to gain a rich political dividend through its choice of nominee. The impressive victory in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections had to be further fortified, keeping in mind the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, and the nominee from Uttar Pradesh was to send the right message.The BJP was also keen to expand its social base and increase its support among the Dalits. The National Election Study data for the 2014 elections shows that the funnel of support for the BJP was wide among the socially privileged and much narrower among those hailing from the socially disadvantaged groups. The BJP’s strategy for 2019 is to clearly enhance its support among the scheduled castes. It is also important to note that the BJP has been consistently emphasising the fact that their Presidential nominee is someone who has risen from the ranks and occupied key positions based on his hard work and merit. This gives an interesting spin to the debate on caste identities of the rival candidates. When the Congress-led opposition also chose a Dailt woman candidate, the BJP was quick to contrast the profile of its nominee with that of the Opposition. They projected their nominee as a self-made man and that of Opposition as representing a known “political family”.
The long-term political implications of the BJP’s Presidential choice were also evident in the immediate political fallout of the announcement. Bihar Chief Minister and a prominent Dalit leader Nitish Kumar chose to break ranks from the Congress-led Opposition and, instead, supported the BJP-sponsored candidate, indicating that it could well pave way for a political realignment in the run-up to the 2019 elections.
The BJP might make a similar calculation when it decides its Vice-Presidential candidate. Commentators are weary of suggesting names as they already have “egg on their face” with the Presidential nominee! One hopes that the rotation principle would be followed and the Vice-Presidential nominee would be from South India. It is critical for the BJP to consolidate its presence in the South and much of its political nominees for key positions have been from the Northern part of the country. Politics, at the end of the day, is about those tantalisingly amazing twists and turns.
