DC Edit | Trump-Modi Call: Will Deal on Ukraine Benefit India?

The Donald Trump playbook of threats of trade wars and tariff tantrums may not have worked too badly for him at home as the narrowing of the US trade deficit in September to its lowest point since the Covid year of 2020 means a part of his economic attack on nations like China and India and his sweeping tariffs against global friends and foes may be working.

A positive reading of his latest telephonic talk with Prime Minister Narendra Modi may even be justified if there has ever been any correlation between what the US president says and how he acts. His record does not, however, support any facile assumptions to be made about the phone call that India may have initiated.

The trade talks are on but moving at snail’s pace in a world of superfast communications and there is only the word of his envoys to talks in India that things are going swimmingly, and the New Year might even see a deal being inked. Until then, Indian exports to the US will be in limbo even as new threats are emerging with Indian rice and basmati not quite being the flavour of the month at the White House.

What the ‘warm’ Trump-Modi conversation can be taken to mean is that India’s strategic autonomy is seen to be working as India’s balancing act with Chinese and Russian leaders, especially during Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to India, may have been noted with interest in Washington. However, there is no sign of any concession being offered to India from the tariffs imposed even as Mr Trump and Mr Modi speak of enhancing cooperation in energy, security, defence and critical technologies.

In the meanwhile, Mr Trump has annoyed Europe with a new American strategy document that has set alarm bells ringing. The secretary-general of Nato, Mark Rutte, has gone so far as to say that Europe must prepare for war against Russia. It is causing not just heartburn in Europe that Mr Trump has been preparing to throw Volodymyr Zelenskyy under the bus by coercing him to sign off on the eastern Donbas, swapping territory for nothing as no security guarantees have been spelt out.

Outlandish ideas like creating a free economic zone in the war zone on Ukraine territory that is being held by Russia are not helping the cause of peace either even as Mr Putin is threatening to take the Donbas by force, regardless of how long it takes him and despite heavy troop losses. Mr Trump’s 28-point peace plan has been whittled down to a 19-point plan that is backed by the rest of Europe, but Mr Putin may not be as interested in it.

However good the intentions to make peace in Europe work for the world, the Trump fixation with playing the broker between Ukraine and Russia, mostly on terms favourable to Russia, is becoming troublesome. Failure in Ukraine could be construed as Mr Trump’s biggest defeat and Europe fears that, in such an eventuality, he could well lead the US into isolationism with Latin America his sole focus outside of home.

A bad peace deal could spell disaster for Ukraine and Europe even if it doesn’t straightaway lead to Russia coming back into the global economy. But India will be a major gainer if peace does prevail as that would mean free access to Russian energy sources again without punitive tariffs and sanctions. India and China’s influence on Mr Putin to make peace possible may have been exaggerated as evidenced in the Russian president’s impassive responses to friendly nudges from Xi Jinping and Mr Modi. Even so, peace in Ukraine would be a win-win for most if not for the country that has suffered an invasion since February 2022.