Donald Trump’s first one hundred days in office — the marker was reached on Saturday — was on everyone’s radar because this President was seen as unpredictable and the least un-presidential of all American chiefs, and yet he has coasted along as a sharp right-winger, but not quite the right wing ogre many dreaded he would be. It is early days yet for a better evaluation, but the man does not seem to be on course to be zany zany. To be sure, Mr Trump has made one mistake after another, the most significant being on the issue of immigration from seven Muslim countries on which his executive orders were thrown out by the American justice system, and the stinging defeat his attempts suffered to replace Obamacare, the health policy. On balance, however, he appears to be slowly moving in the direction of middle ground on issues that matter to America and its traditional allies.
Eventually, he has discomfited Moscow, doing an about-turn, and calmed nerves in the US. He has also downgraded the white supremacist fanatic who had initially been appointed as the President’s key adviser and conscience-keeper. He has sent out his scouts — vice-president Mike Pence, secretary of state Rex Tillerson and defence secretary James Mattis — to Nato allies in Europe, to friendly nations in the Far East, and to take positions in the UN on the question of the North Korea missile and nuclear threat that needed to be taken, signalling that he was not about to abandon the international theatre. The President has also sucked up to China in the same way as his predecessors, but is also pressuring the Chinese to live up to assurances of checking Pyongyang from crossing red-lines. In economic policy, the maverick leader seems gung-ho about cutting corporate tax to 15 per cent and cut personal income tax too.
These could earn him political capital at home, but divert US capital away from the emerging economies like India. On the whole, Mr Trump seems more of a transactional figure than his recent predecessors. This can catch India short. While the American leader is demanding that his allies pay for the security or trade benefits that they get on account of American policy, he could make similar demands of New Delhi. For one, will India back the US positions in Afghanistan, specially when Washington is not about to change its fundamental equation with Islamabad? India may also be asked to sign up fast on the US “foundational” defence agreements. Doing these won’t be wise, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi will soon find out.
