The “X” factor in recent politics has been the arrival of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra on the scene. This appears to have spread the uncertainty factor, especially in the Uttar Pradesh BJP as well as the SP-BSP coalition arrangement in that state.
It’s not clear if, as a result, there might be some realpolitik-induced changes that allow for electoral adjustments between UP’s anti-BJP pre-poll coalition and the Congress without the Congress entering the coalition as a formal third ally.
The Congress may be wary of such an eventuality for two reasons. The past shows when the Grand Old Party combines with the so-called “social justice” parties in UP, it ends up facilitating an upper caste consolidation around the BJP.
The second major reason is that the Congress is seeking to emerge once again as an independent force with a modicum of credibility in several states where it is now only a pale shadow of its earlier self.
UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, and to an extent Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, fall in this category. In each of these, the political dynamics are different. But the Congress, under Rahul Gandhi’s new leadership, is seeking to fight the Lok Sabha election in each of these states with a view to regaining its personality so that the post-poll party-building exercise becomes a realistic exercise.
If the party performs well enough, it may find that some of the “secular” parties against which it will be fighting the Lok Sabha election may become post-poll allies. Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s interaction with the media in Amethi last week, where he declared his party would be “batting on the front foot” in a number of states that he named, is indication that he is not looking for too many secular camp pre-poll allies.
Since these parties are all regional, with exceptions, they cannot be each other’s allies either. As such, the whole idea of a “mahagathbandhan” against the BJP becomes too extravagant to remain realistic.
The Congress has tied up with the NCP in Maharashtra. All indications are that it will ally with the DMK in Tamil Nadu. In Bihar, going together with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD cannot be ruled out, but the picture isn’t entirely clear. Much may depend on the degree of flexibility that the RJD is prepared to exhibit.
In short, the prospect of a single candidate from amongst the BJP’s opponents in constituencies across the country — that some political idealists had hoped for — is nowhere near being realised.
Of course, it’s just as true that the BJP too, unlike 2014, will be without some of its key NDA allies of the past. A good example is the Telugu Desam. The situation regarding the Shiv Sena isn’t also very clear yet. All in all, a major poll battle lies ahead.
