When Prime Minister Narendra Modi met US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G-7 meeting in France over the weekend, he did well to recite the well-established Indian view that Kashmir is a “bilateral” matter between India and Pakistan. Mr Trump’s anxiety to mediate, voiced repeatedly over the past month, may have stemmed from the urgings of Pakistan PM Imran Khan. The US cannot quite do without Pakistan’s help if it wishes to draw down in Afghanistan and do a deal with the Taliban.
Given this larger picture, it remains to be seen if the US President will not again return to the subject of Kashmir. For now he has said that India and Pakistan should talk things over and even urged the latter to subdue terrorist elements. Mr Trump’s latest pronouncement has made the Pakistan PM an unhappier man. With the UAE and Bahrain earlier bestowing honours on Mr Modi, Mr Khan’s stock in his country was already down. In the circumstances, the Pakistan PM could conceivably invent grounds to precipitate hostilities. He said on Monday that a military conflict could lead to a nuclear fallout. Even if this is bluster to ward off Opposition pressures at home, Mr Trump could use his country's standing with Islamabad to counsel restraint.
Matters were much quieter before the Narendra Modi government made drastic constitutional changes in J&K. It is unclear how public sentiment will be expressed in the Kashmir Valley when the heavy repressive lid is removed. If that reaction is not managed adroitly, international pressure can easily be re-kindled. There is a correlation of issues.
