Regardless of which way the Gujarat election result goes, adrenalin appears to be coursing through the veins of parties that stand to oppose the Modi government. This is directly traceable to the credible election campaign in Gujarat being run by Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, who was being projected in unfavourable light until recently. There appears to be an acknowledgment of this in the BJP camp as well. The changed mood is causing hope to build among Prime Minister Modi’s opponents that careful tactical footwork among them can lead to a worthwhile electoral challenge being mounted against his dispensation in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Inherent in this thinking is the admission that Mr Modi, widely regarded as probably the shrewdest political leader to emerge in years, may be hard to beat unless his opponents can display a credible sense of unity among themselves. At a public function in New Delhi on Friday, Arun Shourie, a former member of the Atal Behari Vajpayee government, urged the need for Mr Modi’s opponents to offer a single candidate from one among themselves to oppose the BJP on every seat.
This is a variant of the formula adopted by then PM Indira Gandhi’s opponents in the 1970s who merged their respective parties to form the Janata Party and trounced the Congress in the North. In the changed circumstances of today, this will be impossible to replicate. Besides, the ignoble fate of the Janata after it defeated Mrs Gandhi is still fresh in the minds of the political class. Evidently, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee has been working behind the scenes to bring about a measure of understanding among parties that are at odds with the BJP of Mr Modi and his organisational commander Amit Shah.
This was strongly hinted at on a television programme recently by a leader of her party in Parliament, Derek O’Brien. The difficulty of the task is evident from the campaign for the Assembly election in Gujarat, where the stakes are high. Let alone a defeat, a significantly good showing for the Congress is likely to have a negative impact on the BJP’s preparations for 2019. And yet, Sharad Pawar’s NCP is going it alone. This will split the anti-BJP vote. Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), which jumped ship to join the BJP recently, has announced it will be fielding around 100 candidates in Gujarat. This is with a view to deny the Congress the votes of the powerful Patel community, a section of which is veering toward the Congress this time.
