Dealing with Islamabad is not easy. This is not just India’s experience but of all of Pakistan’s neighbours, and of the world’s leading powers as well, including the US and China. Fundamentally, the problem is that Pakistan has a backward society and politics coupled with a militarised state, and has also acquired the nuclear bomb through deception. This is an unsettling mix. For India, the problem is greater because Pakistan covets a part of its territory and has used unconventional warfare — deploying terrorist proxies — to attain that objective. Last Sunday’s attack at Uri is only the latest in a long chain (and is unlikely to be the last).
What our government has to deal with is therefore exceedingly complex. Even so, to hear the official spokesman recently hint glibly that denying Pakistan waters of the Indus basin in violation of existing treaty arrangements is distressing and impolitic, and so clearly misconceived. India has a standing in the world and tremendous soft power which will certainly be eroded should India get into the business of holding out the threat of denying water. Food-growing in Pakistan is likely to be severely impacted if the Indus waters are diverted before they enter its territory. This could permit antagonists to hurl the charge of human rights violations.
In the Muslim world, where India has countless friends, water-denial can trigger recall of the story of Karbala where Imam Hussain, a revered Islamic figure and nephew of the Prophet, was denied water by an opponent and left to die. Denying Pakistan Indus waters could thus distort India’s image across the world and yield nil gain. It is hard to believe that our diplomatic professionals who run the ministry of external affairs could have thought up such a disastrous idea. There are the obvious practical difficulties, besides. If we being the upper riparian in the Indus case think we have the so-called upper hand, China — a dear friend of Pakistan — could think likewise in the case of the Brahmputra.
Also, Bangladesh, the lower riparian in the matter of the Ganga waters, would become forever mistrustful of India. That could have a crippling effect on our neighbourhood relations in general. There is also another matter to consider. If the Indus basin waters are sought to be corralled, there would likely be severe flooding and negative consequences within India, and we will be badly hurting ourselves. Even if the Indus hint was not seriously intended, which is not unlikely, it hardly behoves a country of India’s standing to officially put out such a thought.
