The BJP’s oldest ally, the Shiv Sena, announced on Tuesday that it will not align with the ruling saffron party either in the next Lok Sabha election in 2019 or in the Maharashtra Assembly polls. The rupturing of their relationship of a quarter century can’t be a total surprise. Maharashtra’s regional Hindutva party, while being in the BJP-led coalition government in the state as well as the Centre, has practically been behaving like an Opposition party from the start.
The timing of the announcement can probably be explained by the fact that the Sena would like time to prepare to operate as a fully Opposition party, and organisationally put its house in order to play a lone hand in the next polls while remaining a government partner.
The Sena no doubt recognises that even after the declaration of its intent the BJP can’t afford to demand that it leave the coalition government in the state. The Devendra Fadnavis government will fall if it so insists. To that extent, this is an opportunist move by the Shiv Sena leadership.
In recent years, the Sena has ceded ground to the BJP in its home base. Its move is perhaps aimed at regaining lost space within the Hindutva framework. The regional party plans to set up candidates in other states as well.
On its own, it cannot hope to win many of these. But in certain states, including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and possibly Karnataka, it may hope to offer a platform to the BJP’s factional dissidents if organisational unity eludes the larger party.
